President Donald Trump’s second term, secured in the 2024 election and extending through January 2029, anchors trader consensus reflected in the 99.2% implied probability against removal by September 30. Republican congressional majorities have referred recent impeachment resolutions, including one introduced in August 2026, to committee without advancing them to a floor vote, while no Cabinet or vice-presidential support has emerged for invoking the 25th Amendment. Trump remains actively engaged in policy on AI regulation, the ongoing Iran conflict, and midterm preparations, with no verified reports of incapacity or resignation signals. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sustained two-thirds Senate vote for conviction following House impeachment or an unforeseen health development triggering temporary or permanent succession under constitutional procedures.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
<1% 機率
$888,103 交易量
$888,103 交易量
2026-09-30
是
<1% 機率
$888,103 交易量
$888,103 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump’s second term, secured in the 2024 election and extending through January 2029, anchors trader consensus reflected in the 99.2% implied probability against removal by September 30. Republican congressional majorities have referred recent impeachment resolutions, including one introduced in August 2026, to committee without advancing them to a floor vote, while no Cabinet or vice-presidential support has emerged for invoking the 25th Amendment. Trump remains actively engaged in policy on AI regulation, the ongoing Iran conflict, and midterm preparations, with no verified reports of incapacity or resignation signals. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sustained two-thirds Senate vote for conviction following House impeachment or an unforeseen health development triggering temporary or permanent succession under constitutional procedures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
交易量
$888,103結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump’s second term, secured in the 2024 election and extending through January 2029, anchors trader consensus reflected in the 99.2% implied probability against removal by September 30. Republican congressional majorities have referred recent impeachment resolutions, including one introduced in August 2026, to committee without advancing them to a floor vote, while no Cabinet or vice-presidential support has emerged for invoking the 25th Amendment. Trump remains actively engaged in policy on AI regulation, the ongoing Iran conflict, and midterm preparations, with no verified reports of incapacity or resignation signals. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sustained two-thirds Senate vote for conviction following House impeachment or an unforeseen health development triggering temporary or permanent succession under constitutional procedures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$888,103結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETPresident Donald Trump’s second term, secured in the 2024 election and extending through January 2029, anchors trader consensus reflected in the 99.2% implied probability against removal by September 30. Republican congressional majorities have referred recent impeachment resolutions, including one introduced in August 2026, to committee without advancing them to a floor vote, while no Cabinet or vice-presidential support has emerged for invoking the 25th Amendment. Trump remains actively engaged in policy on AI regulation, the ongoing Iran conflict, and midterm preparations, with no verified reports of incapacity or resignation signals. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sustained two-thirds Senate vote for conviction following House impeachment or an unforeseen health development triggering temporary or permanent succession under constitutional procedures.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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