Ongoing gray-zone confrontations between Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels and Philippine forces at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal have featured water cannons, dangerous maneuvers, and non-lethal physical contact, such as the July 2026 baton incident injuring a Philippine sailor, yet these remain short of direct military engagement. Beijing’s sanctions on Philippine officials, floating platform placements, and diplomatic protests pair with Manila’s resupply missions and U.S.-backed joint patrols without triggering lethal force or naval combat. Both sides maintain incentives to avoid escalation that could activate the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty or disrupt broader regional stability, while recent diplomatic meetings and research vessel activity continue without crossing into open hostilities. This pattern of managed friction supports trader expectations that a qualifying military clash is unlikely before the end of 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
25% 機率
$395,993 交易量
$395,993 交易量
2026-12-31
是
25% 機率
$395,993 交易量
$395,993 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing gray-zone confrontations between Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels and Philippine forces at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal have featured water cannons, dangerous maneuvers, and non-lethal physical contact, such as the July 2026 baton incident injuring a Philippine sailor, yet these remain short of direct military engagement. Beijing’s sanctions on Philippine officials, floating platform placements, and diplomatic protests pair with Manila’s resupply missions and U.S.-backed joint patrols without triggering lethal force or naval combat. Both sides maintain incentives to avoid escalation that could activate the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty or disrupt broader regional stability, while recent diplomatic meetings and research vessel activity continue without crossing into open hostilities. This pattern of managed friction supports trader expectations that a qualifying military clash is unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$395,993結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing gray-zone confrontations between Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels and Philippine forces at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal have featured water cannons, dangerous maneuvers, and non-lethal physical contact, such as the July 2026 baton incident injuring a Philippine sailor, yet these remain short of direct military engagement. Beijing’s sanctions on Philippine officials, floating platform placements, and diplomatic protests pair with Manila’s resupply missions and U.S.-backed joint patrols without triggering lethal force or naval combat. Both sides maintain incentives to avoid escalation that could activate the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty or disrupt broader regional stability, while recent diplomatic meetings and research vessel activity continue without crossing into open hostilities. This pattern of managed friction supports trader expectations that a qualifying military clash is unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$395,993結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETOngoing gray-zone confrontations between Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels and Philippine forces at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal have featured water cannons, dangerous maneuvers, and non-lethal physical contact, such as the July 2026 baton incident injuring a Philippine sailor, yet these remain short of direct military engagement. Beijing’s sanctions on Philippine officials, floating platform placements, and diplomatic protests pair with Manila’s resupply missions and U.S.-backed joint patrols without triggering lethal force or naval combat. Both sides maintain incentives to avoid escalation that could activate the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty or disrupt broader regional stability, while recent diplomatic meetings and research vessel activity continue without crossing into open hostilities. This pattern of managed friction supports trader expectations that a qualifying military clash is unlikely before the end of 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions