Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic stabilization following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, which produced frameworks for trade purchases, rare-earth cooperation, and strategic stability dialogue. Ongoing gray-zone friction in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, including July 2026 vessel incidents with the Philippines and expanded Chinese coast-guard patrols, has remained contained without involving US forces. US attention has also shifted toward other priorities, while both capitals continue high-level contacts and avoid kinetic escalation that could disrupt supply chains or trigger broader conflict. Late developments such as miscalculation during joint exercises, rapid shifts in Taiwan policy, or renewed naval standoffs involving American assets could still alter the outlook before the 2027 cutoff.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$194,577 交易量
$194,577 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$194,577 交易量
$194,577 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic stabilization following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, which produced frameworks for trade purchases, rare-earth cooperation, and strategic stability dialogue. Ongoing gray-zone friction in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, including July 2026 vessel incidents with the Philippines and expanded Chinese coast-guard patrols, has remained contained without involving US forces. US attention has also shifted toward other priorities, while both capitals continue high-level contacts and avoid kinetic escalation that could disrupt supply chains or trigger broader conflict. Late developments such as miscalculation during joint exercises, rapid shifts in Taiwan policy, or renewed naval standoffs involving American assets could still alter the outlook before the 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$194,577結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic stabilization following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, which produced frameworks for trade purchases, rare-earth cooperation, and strategic stability dialogue. Ongoing gray-zone friction in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, including July 2026 vessel incidents with the Philippines and expanded Chinese coast-guard patrols, has remained contained without involving US forces. US attention has also shifted toward other priorities, while both capitals continue high-level contacts and avoid kinetic escalation that could disrupt supply chains or trigger broader conflict. Late developments such as miscalculation during joint exercises, rapid shifts in Taiwan policy, or renewed naval standoffs involving American assets could still alter the outlook before the 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$194,577結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic stabilization following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, which produced frameworks for trade purchases, rare-earth cooperation, and strategic stability dialogue. Ongoing gray-zone friction in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, including July 2026 vessel incidents with the Philippines and expanded Chinese coast-guard patrols, has remained contained without involving US forces. US attention has also shifted toward other priorities, while both capitals continue high-level contacts and avoid kinetic escalation that could disrupt supply chains or trigger broader conflict. Late developments such as miscalculation during joint exercises, rapid shifts in Taiwan policy, or renewed naval standoffs involving American assets could still alter the outlook before the 2027 cutoff.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions