Becerra and Hilton advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary as the Democratic and Republican nominees to succeed term-limited Governor Newsom. Polls since then show Becerra maintaining a substantial lead rooted in California’s Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan loyalty, with recent surveys placing him 15–25 points ahead. Trader pricing across victory margins reflects this baseline advantage tempered by uncertainty over turnout among no-party-preference voters, economic concerns such as housing costs and homelessness, and the impact of any late-campaign shifts in messaging or external events. A sustained narrowing in polling averages or unexpected mobilization in inland counties could compress Becerra’s margin, while continued Democratic consolidation would likely widen it.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於貝塞拉 30-35% 34%
貝塞拉40％以上 26%
貝塞拉 10-15% 20%
貝塞拉 20-25% 17%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
貝塞拉40％以上
26%
貝塞拉35-40%
11%
貝塞拉 30-35%
34%
貝塞拉 25-30%
10%
貝塞拉 20-25%
17%
貝塞拉15-20%
17%
貝塞拉 10-15%
20%
貝塞拉 0-10%
14%
希爾頓勝出
14%
貝塞拉 30-35% 34%
貝塞拉40％以上 26%
貝塞拉 10-15% 20%
貝塞拉 20-25% 17%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
貝塞拉40％以上
$56 交易量
26%
貝塞拉35-40%
$41 交易量
11%
貝塞拉 30-35%
$32 交易量
34%
貝塞拉 25-30%
$32 交易量
10%
貝塞拉 20-25%
$41 交易量
17%
貝塞拉15-20%
$51 交易量
17%
貝塞拉 10-15%
$46 交易量
20%
貝塞拉 0-10%
$36 交易量
14%
希爾頓勝出
$41 交易量
14%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra and Hilton advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary as the Democratic and Republican nominees to succeed term-limited Governor Newsom. Polls since then show Becerra maintaining a substantial lead rooted in California’s Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan loyalty, with recent surveys placing him 15–25 points ahead. Trader pricing across victory margins reflects this baseline advantage tempered by uncertainty over turnout among no-party-preference voters, economic concerns such as housing costs and homelessness, and the impact of any late-campaign shifts in messaging or external events. A sustained narrowing in polling averages or unexpected mobilization in inland counties could compress Becerra’s margin, while continued Democratic consolidation would likely widen it.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
交易量
$376結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETThe 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra and Hilton advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary as the Democratic and Republican nominees to succeed term-limited Governor Newsom. Polls since then show Becerra maintaining a substantial lead rooted in California’s Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan loyalty, with recent surveys placing him 15–25 points ahead. Trader pricing across victory margins reflects this baseline advantage tempered by uncertainty over turnout among no-party-preference voters, economic concerns such as housing costs and homelessness, and the impact of any late-campaign shifts in messaging or external events. A sustained narrowing in polling averages or unexpected mobilization in inland counties could compress Becerra’s margin, while continued Democratic consolidation would likely widen it.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$376結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETBecerra and Hilton advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary as the Democratic and Republican nominees to succeed term-limited Governor Newsom. Polls since then show Becerra maintaining a substantial lead rooted in California’s Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan loyalty, with recent surveys placing him 15–25 points ahead. Trader pricing across victory margins reflects this baseline advantage tempered by uncertainty over turnout among no-party-preference voters, economic concerns such as housing costs and homelessness, and the impact of any late-campaign shifts in messaging or external events. A sustained narrowing in polling averages or unexpected mobilization in inland counties could compress Becerra’s margin, while continued Democratic consolidation would likely widen it.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions