Traders assign a 96.7% probability that Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, reflecting broad consensus that an incumbent president in his second term faces few structural pressures to step down absent major unforeseen events. Key drivers include Trump's established political style of resisting external pressure, strong party alignment in Congress, and the absence of confirmed health, legal, or scandal-related developments that historically prompt early exits. Resignation markets of this type typically move only with verifiable triggers such as sudden medical incapacity, credible impeachment momentum, or explicit public statements. Remaining scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid deterioration in personal health, a major bipartisan crisis forcing a negotiated departure, or unexpected legal outcomes tied to ongoing cases, though none currently register as near-term catalysts in trader assessments.