Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-212 with vacancies, secured after the 2024 elections. Trader consensus at 98 percent against losing control before the November 2026 midterms reflects the limited remaining window for change, the absence of a wave of Republican vacancies or resignations in Democratic-leaning districts, and special election results that have not produced net Democratic gains sufficient to flip the chamber. Historical patterns show that flipping a congressional majority between elections requires multiple coordinated vacancies and subsequent special election losses, events that have not materialized at scale. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include clustered deaths or resignations among Republican members in competitive seats, triggering specials that Democrats win, or unexpected party switches, though such developments remain rare in the final months before the general election.