Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 4-6 points, aligning with the historical midterm penalty against the president's party and positioning traders to assign the highest probability to Republican House totals below 190 seats. Republicans enter with a narrow majority and must defend competitive districts amid 59 retirements, including many GOP incumbents, while redistricting battles in states like Texas and California reshape the map. Democratic overperformance in recent special elections and Cook Political Report toss-up ratings further pressure Republican margins in battlegrounds. Economic concerns, including inflation and tariffs, add headwinds that could widen losses beyond the 10-15 seat range projected in some forecasts, though final turnout and late-cycle developments remain key variables.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 24%
190-194 13%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$286,502 KL.
$286,502 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
24%
190-194
13%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
7%
220-224
8%
225-229
7%
230+
4%
Below 190 24%
190-194 13%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$286,502 KL.
$286,502 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
$32,984 KL.
24%
190-194
$13,778 KL.
13%
195-199
$32,609 KL.
12%
200-204
$24,750 KL.
12%
205-209
$40,227 KL.
11%
210-214
$15,669 KL.
9%
215-219
$11,450 KL.
7%
220-224
$59,267 KL.
8%
225-229
$24,767 KL.
7%
230+
$31,001 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 4-6 points, aligning with the historical midterm penalty against the president's party and positioning traders to assign the highest probability to Republican House totals below 190 seats. Republicans enter with a narrow majority and must defend competitive districts amid 59 retirements, including many GOP incumbents, while redistricting battles in states like Texas and California reshape the map. Democratic overperformance in recent special elections and Cook Political Report toss-up ratings further pressure Republican margins in battlegrounds. Economic concerns, including inflation and tariffs, add headwinds that could widen losses beyond the 10-15 seat range projected in some forecasts, though final turnout and late-cycle developments remain key variables.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$286,502Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 4-6 points, aligning with the historical midterm penalty against the president's party and positioning traders to assign the highest probability to Republican House totals below 190 seats. Republicans enter with a narrow majority and must defend competitive districts amid 59 retirements, including many GOP incumbents, while redistricting battles in states like Texas and California reshape the map. Democratic overperformance in recent special elections and Cook Political Report toss-up ratings further pressure Republican margins in battlegrounds. Economic concerns, including inflation and tariffs, add headwinds that could widen losses beyond the 10-15 seat range projected in some forecasts, though final turnout and late-cycle developments remain key variables.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$286,502Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 4-6 points, aligning with the historical midterm penalty against the president's party and positioning traders to assign the highest probability to Republican House totals below 190 seats. Republicans enter with a narrow majority and must defend competitive districts amid 59 retirements, including many GOP incumbents, while redistricting battles in states like Texas and California reshape the map. Democratic overperformance in recent special elections and Cook Political Report toss-up ratings further pressure Republican margins in battlegrounds. Economic concerns, including inflation and tariffs, add headwinds that could widen losses beyond the 10-15 seat range projected in some forecasts, though final turnout and late-cycle developments remain key variables.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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