Prolonged drought and successive heatwaves across western Europe have driven the Rhine to record lows at key gauges like Kaub, with levels well below the 78 cm navigation threshold due to minimal rainfall, reduced Alpine snowmelt, and sustained high temperatures through July and early August 2026. These conditions have curtailed barge loads and shipping capacity, with forecasts indicating limited near-term recovery absent substantial precipitation. Trader consensus places the highest probability on normalization during October, reflecting expectations that autumn rainfall patterns will eventually restore flows, while the sizable share assigned to persistence past November 1 accounts for the risk of extended dry spells and the increasing frequency of such events in recent years.