As of mid-August 2026, the Met Office reports that the UK summer mean temperature stands near 16.10°C, already 1.51°C above the long-term average, placing the season on course to eclipse the 2025 record of 16.12°C with only average conditions required through the remainder of the month. Exceptional warmth has featured multiple heatwaves, including a June peak of 38.0°C at Lingwood, Norfolk—the fifth-hottest UK day on record—and the first instance of 35°C temperatures occurring in May, June, and July. Minimum temperatures have also tracked at record levels, with more days above 30°C by mid-July than in the entire benchmark 1976 summer. These verified observations from official monitoring, combined with sustained above-average conditions and minimal cooling expected, underpin trader consensus around an 85.5% implied probability for a new record.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
86% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 1, 2026
86% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, the Met Office reports that the UK summer mean temperature stands near 16.10°C, already 1.51°C above the long-term average, placing the season on course to eclipse the 2025 record of 16.12°C with only average conditions required through the remainder of the month. Exceptional warmth has featured multiple heatwaves, including a June peak of 38.0°C at Lingwood, Norfolk—the fifth-hottest UK day on record—and the first instance of 35°C temperatures occurring in May, June, and July. Minimum temperatures have also tracked at record levels, with more days above 30°C by mid-July than in the entire benchmark 1976 summer. These verified observations from official monitoring, combined with sustained above-average conditions and minimal cooling expected, underpin trader consensus around an 85.5% implied probability for a new record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Khối lượng
$331Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, the Met Office reports that the UK summer mean temperature stands near 16.10°C, already 1.51°C above the long-term average, placing the season on course to eclipse the 2025 record of 16.12°C with only average conditions required through the remainder of the month. Exceptional warmth has featured multiple heatwaves, including a June peak of 38.0°C at Lingwood, Norfolk—the fifth-hottest UK day on record—and the first instance of 35°C temperatures occurring in May, June, and July. Minimum temperatures have also tracked at record levels, with more days above 30°C by mid-July than in the entire benchmark 1976 summer. These verified observations from official monitoring, combined with sustained above-average conditions and minimal cooling expected, underpin trader consensus around an 85.5% implied probability for a new record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$331Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETAs of mid-August 2026, the Met Office reports that the UK summer mean temperature stands near 16.10°C, already 1.51°C above the long-term average, placing the season on course to eclipse the 2025 record of 16.12°C with only average conditions required through the remainder of the month. Exceptional warmth has featured multiple heatwaves, including a June peak of 38.0°C at Lingwood, Norfolk—the fifth-hottest UK day on record—and the first instance of 35°C temperatures occurring in May, June, and July. Minimum temperatures have also tracked at record levels, with more days above 30°C by mid-July than in the entire benchmark 1976 summer. These verified observations from official monitoring, combined with sustained above-average conditions and minimal cooling expected, underpin trader consensus around an 85.5% implied probability for a new record.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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