Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and AEMET points to a strengthening heat dome over western Europe, with high pressure promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover to drive Madrid's August 13 maximum into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius. Persistent southerly flow of warmer air masses from North Africa, combined with the seasonal baseline for central Spain, supports the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C and 40°C outcomes. Short-range forecasts currently cluster near 39–40°C, though minor shifts in the position of the ridge or localized convection could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher ahead of resolution. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for confirmation of these atmospheric patterns.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
39°C 50%
40°C 35%
38°C 8%
41°C 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 13, 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
8%
39°C
50%
40°C
35%
41°C
6%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 50%
40°C 35%
38°C 8%
41°C 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 13, 2026
35°C or below
$71 KL.
<1%
36°C
$92 KL.
1%
37°C
$194 KL.
2%
38°C
$139 KL.
8%
39°C
$223 KL.
50%
40°C
$639 KL.
35%
41°C
$99 KL.
6%
42°C
$147 KL.
2%
43°C
$83 KL.
1%
44°C
$182 KL.
<1%
45°C or higher
$70 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and AEMET points to a strengthening heat dome over western Europe, with high pressure promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover to drive Madrid's August 13 maximum into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius. Persistent southerly flow of warmer air masses from North Africa, combined with the seasonal baseline for central Spain, supports the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C and 40°C outcomes. Short-range forecasts currently cluster near 39–40°C, though minor shifts in the position of the ridge or localized convection could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher ahead of resolution. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for confirmation of these atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,938Ngày kết thúc
Aug 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and AEMET points to a strengthening heat dome over western Europe, with high pressure promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover to drive Madrid's August 13 maximum into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius. Persistent southerly flow of warmer air masses from North Africa, combined with the seasonal baseline for central Spain, supports the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C and 40°C outcomes. Short-range forecasts currently cluster near 39–40°C, though minor shifts in the position of the ridge or localized convection could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher ahead of resolution. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for confirmation of these atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,938Ngày kết thúc
Aug 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and AEMET points to a strengthening heat dome over western Europe, with high pressure promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover to drive Madrid's August 13 maximum into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius. Persistent southerly flow of warmer air masses from North Africa, combined with the seasonal baseline for central Spain, supports the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C and 40°C outcomes. Short-range forecasts currently cluster near 39–40°C, though minor shifts in the position of the ridge or localized convection could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher ahead of resolution. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for confirmation of these atmospheric patterns.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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