**Trader sentiment on the "Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?" market favors "No" at 72.5% because no formal agreement transferring sovereignty or completing a purchase has materialized despite months of U.S. pressure.** Early 2026 saw President Trump escalate with tariff threats against Denmark and other NATO allies unless a "complete and total purchase" occurred, followed by a January Davos meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that produced only a vague "framework of a future deal" on Arctic security and enhanced U.S. access. This led to tariff withdrawals but left core issues unresolved, as Denmark and Greenland officials consistently stated sovereignty is non-negotiable and not for sale. Subsequent developments, including a July 2026 revival of purchase preferences and ongoing talks about updating the 1951 defense agreement or expanding military presence, have focused on security cooperation rather than ownership transfer. High estimated costs, Greenlandic and Danish opposition, Senate confirmation or legislative hurdles for major territorial changes, and the lack of concrete progress or deadlines met since the framework announcement support the current implied probability that a binding signed deal will not occur by year-end. Upcoming diplomatic or NATO-related events could influence timelines but face entrenched structural barriers.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật27% khả năng
$94,804 KL.
$94,804 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
27% khả năng
$94,804 KL.
$94,804 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader sentiment on the "Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?" market favors "No" at 72.5% because no formal agreement transferring sovereignty or completing a purchase has materialized despite months of U.S. pressure.**
Early 2026 saw President Trump escalate with tariff threats against Denmark and other NATO allies unless a "complete and total purchase" occurred, followed by a January Davos meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that produced only a vague "framework of a future deal" on Arctic security and enhanced U.S. access. This led to tariff withdrawals but left core issues unresolved, as Denmark and Greenland officials consistently stated sovereignty is non-negotiable and not for sale.
Subsequent developments, including a July 2026 revival of purchase preferences and ongoing talks about updating the 1951 defense agreement or expanding military presence, have focused on security cooperation rather than ownership transfer. High estimated costs, Greenlandic and Danish opposition, Senate confirmation or legislative hurdles for major territorial changes, and the lack of concrete progress or deadlines met since the framework announcement support the current implied probability that a binding signed deal will not occur by year-end. Upcoming diplomatic or NATO-related events could influence timelines but face entrenched structural barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jan 21, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Khối lượng
$94,804Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 21, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader sentiment on the "Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?" market favors "No" at 72.5% because no formal agreement transferring sovereignty or completing a purchase has materialized despite months of U.S. pressure.**
Early 2026 saw President Trump escalate with tariff threats against Denmark and other NATO allies unless a "complete and total purchase" occurred, followed by a January Davos meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that produced only a vague "framework of a future deal" on Arctic security and enhanced U.S. access. This led to tariff withdrawals but left core issues unresolved, as Denmark and Greenland officials consistently stated sovereignty is non-negotiable and not for sale.
Subsequent developments, including a July 2026 revival of purchase preferences and ongoing talks about updating the 1951 defense agreement or expanding military presence, have focused on security cooperation rather than ownership transfer. High estimated costs, Greenlandic and Danish opposition, Senate confirmation or legislative hurdles for major territorial changes, and the lack of concrete progress or deadlines met since the framework announcement support the current implied probability that a binding signed deal will not occur by year-end. Upcoming diplomatic or NATO-related events could influence timelines but face entrenched structural barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$94,804Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 21, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader sentiment on the "Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?" market favors "No" at 72.5% because no formal agreement transferring sovereignty or completing a purchase has materialized despite months of U.S. pressure.** Early 2026 saw President Trump escalate with tariff threats against Denmark and other NATO allies unless a "complete and total purchase" occurred, followed by a January Davos meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that produced only a vague "framework of a future deal" on Arctic security and enhanced U.S. access. This led to tariff withdrawals but left core issues unresolved, as Denmark and Greenland officials consistently stated sovereignty is non-negotiable and not for sale. Subsequent developments, including a July 2026 revival of purchase preferences and ongoing talks about updating the 1951 defense agreement or expanding military presence, have focused on security cooperation rather than ownership transfer. High estimated costs, Greenlandic and Danish opposition, Senate confirmation or legislative hurdles for major territorial changes, and the lack of concrete progress or deadlines met since the framework announcement support the current implied probability that a binding signed deal will not occur by year-end. Upcoming diplomatic or NATO-related events could influence timelines but face entrenched structural barriers.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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