Recent polling aggregates from sources tracking the 2026 congressional generic ballot place Democrats ahead by 5 to 7 points as of mid-August, with individual surveys from August 7–17 showing margins clustered around D+5 to D+7 among registered and likely voters. This positioning drives the elevated probabilities for outcomes between D+6.3 and D+7.1, as traders align with the stable trend in aggregates from outlets like RealClearPolling and Ballotpedia. Limited movement in the past week reflects steady voter preferences on economic conditions and midterm turnout dynamics, without major new catalysts shifting the national environment ahead of the August 24 measurement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGeneric Ballot polling on August 24?
Generic Ballot polling on August 24?
Dems +6.3% or lower 45%
Dems +6.8–6.9% 24%
Dems +7.0–7.1% 22%
Dems +6.6–6.7% 22%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 24, 2026
Dems +7.2%+
11%
Dems +7.0–7.1%
22%
Dems +6.8–6.9%
24%
Dems +6.6–6.7%
22%
Dems +6.4–6.5%
22%
Dems +6.3% or lower
45%
Dems +6.3% or lower 45%
Dems +6.8–6.9% 24%
Dems +7.0–7.1% 22%
Dems +6.6–6.7% 22%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 24, 2026
Dems +7.2%+
$0 KL.
11%
Dems +7.0–7.1%
$0 KL.
22%
Dems +6.8–6.9%
$0 KL.
24%
Dems +6.6–6.7%
$0 KL.
22%
Dems +6.4–6.5%
$0 KL.
22%
Dems +6.3% or lower
$0 KL.
45%
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent polling aggregates from sources tracking the 2026 congressional generic ballot place Democrats ahead by 5 to 7 points as of mid-August, with individual surveys from August 7–17 showing margins clustered around D+5 to D+7 among registered and likely voters. This positioning drives the elevated probabilities for outcomes between D+6.3 and D+7.1, as traders align with the stable trend in aggregates from outlets like RealClearPolling and Ballotpedia. Limited movement in the past week reflects steady voter preferences on economic conditions and midterm turnout dynamics, without major new catalysts shifting the national environment ahead of the August 24 measurement.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent polling aggregates from sources tracking the 2026 congressional generic ballot place Democrats ahead by 5 to 7 points as of mid-August, with individual surveys from August 7–17 showing margins clustered around D+5 to D+7 among registered and likely voters. This positioning drives the elevated probabilities for outcomes between D+6.3 and D+7.1, as traders align with the stable trend in aggregates from outlets like RealClearPolling and Ballotpedia. Limited movement in the past week reflects steady voter preferences on economic conditions and midterm turnout dynamics, without major new catalysts shifting the national environment ahead of the August 24 measurement.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates from sources tracking the 2026 congressional generic ballot place Democrats ahead by 5 to 7 points as of mid-August, with individual surveys from August 7–17 showing margins clustered around D+5 to D+7 among registered and likely voters. This positioning drives the elevated probabilities for outcomes between D+6.3 and D+7.1, as traders align with the stable trend in aggregates from outlets like RealClearPolling and Ballotpedia. Limited movement in the past week reflects steady voter preferences on economic conditions and midterm turnout dynamics, without major new catalysts shifting the national environment ahead of the August 24 measurement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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