Nigel Farage’s re-election as Clacton MP on 13 August 2026, following his July resignation to trigger and contest a by-election amid a resumed parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared gifts, has stabilized the seat for the remainder of the year. Reform UK holds the constituency with no signs of further vacancy triggers such as additional resignations, death, or procedural disqualifications. Main opposition parties boycotted the recent contest, viewing it as a political maneuver, and no scheduled votes, leadership challenges, or constituency-specific developments point to another poll before year-end. Traders therefore price the probability of a second 2026 by-election at roughly 30 percent, reflecting the low likelihood of renewed disruption in the current parliamentary session.