**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.** Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed. The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 4?
15°C 100.0%
13°C or below 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
16°C <1%
$2,475 KL.
$2,475 KL.
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
13°C or below 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
16°C <1%
$2,475 KL.
$2,475 KL.
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
$70 KL.
No
14°C
$79 KL.
No
15°C
$535 KL.
Yes
16°C
$139 KL.
No
17°C
$308 KL.
No
18°C
$326 KL.
No
19°C
$104 KL.
No
20°C
$112 KL.
No
21°C
$267 KL.
No
22°C
$267 KL.
No
23°C or higher
$267 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.**
Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed.
The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,475Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.**
Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed.
The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$2,475Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.** Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed. The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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