Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and 2026 severely damaged Iran’s enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying most operational centrifuges and weaponization infrastructure while leaving roughly 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium in inaccessible tunnel storage. IAEA inspectors have had minimal access to these sites since the strikes, preventing verification of stockpile status or any resumption of enrichment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding initiated talks on inspections and down-blending under IAEA supervision, with negotiators targeting a final agreement within 60 days. Assessments from the IAEA and independent analysts indicate that reconstituting a viable breakout path would require more than a year given the extent of the damage, placing any potential weapon acquisition well beyond the end of 2026. Ongoing diplomacy and the absence of confirmed weaponization activity further support the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% probability for “No.”