Persistent security risks and Iranian enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial transits severely constrained, driving trader consensus toward the 25-49 outcome bucket. Recent data from ship trackers show daily crossings hovering in the single digits as of August 21 amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, vessel strikes, and IRGC warnings that limit use of alternative routes. This environment favors the lower-volume brackets, with the <25 range priced at a substantial premium to pre-conflict norms of over 130 vessels per day. Market-implied odds embed expectations that elevated maritime risk, selective routing preferences, and sanctions exposure will sustain depressed flows into the week of August 24 without triggering a full shutdown. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in enforcement or de-escalation signals that could incrementally lift volumes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
25-49 55%
<25 32%
50-74 9%
75-99 2.3%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 30, 2026
<25
32%
25-49
55%
50-74
9%
75-99
2%
100+
2%
25-49 55%
<25 32%
50-74 9%
75-99 2.3%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 30, 2026
<25
$330 KL.
32%
25-49
$355 KL.
55%
50-74
$71 KL.
9%
75-99
$109 KL.
2%
100+
$62 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent security risks and Iranian enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial transits severely constrained, driving trader consensus toward the 25-49 outcome bucket. Recent data from ship trackers show daily crossings hovering in the single digits as of August 21 amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, vessel strikes, and IRGC warnings that limit use of alternative routes. This environment favors the lower-volume brackets, with the <25 range priced at a substantial premium to pre-conflict norms of over 130 vessels per day. Market-implied odds embed expectations that elevated maritime risk, selective routing preferences, and sanctions exposure will sustain depressed flows into the week of August 24 without triggering a full shutdown. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in enforcement or de-escalation signals that could incrementally lift volumes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Thị trường mở: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$926Ngày kết thúc
Aug 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent security risks and Iranian enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial transits severely constrained, driving trader consensus toward the 25-49 outcome bucket. Recent data from ship trackers show daily crossings hovering in the single digits as of August 21 amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, vessel strikes, and IRGC warnings that limit use of alternative routes. This environment favors the lower-volume brackets, with the <25 range priced at a substantial premium to pre-conflict norms of over 130 vessels per day. Market-implied odds embed expectations that elevated maritime risk, selective routing preferences, and sanctions exposure will sustain depressed flows into the week of August 24 without triggering a full shutdown. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in enforcement or de-escalation signals that could incrementally lift volumes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Khối lượng
$926Ngày kết thúc
Aug 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent security risks and Iranian enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial transits severely constrained, driving trader consensus toward the 25-49 outcome bucket. Recent data from ship trackers show daily crossings hovering in the single digits as of August 21 amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, vessel strikes, and IRGC warnings that limit use of alternative routes. This environment favors the lower-volume brackets, with the <25 range priced at a substantial premium to pre-conflict norms of over 130 vessels per day. Market-implied odds embed expectations that elevated maritime risk, selective routing preferences, and sanctions exposure will sustain depressed flows into the week of August 24 without triggering a full shutdown. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in enforcement or de-escalation signals that could incrementally lift volumes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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