Recent Houthi attacks, including the deadly August 11 strike on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have intensified security risks and insurance premiums for Red Sea transits, prompting shippers to weigh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope despite added fuel and time costs. The July 20 Saudi blockade declaration triggered an initial 24% drop in weekly traffic to the low 260s from prior levels near 350, with volumes stabilizing around 266 amid selective dark and shadow-fleet movements, though mainstream tanker activity fell sharply. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities for the 160-179 and 180-199 bands driven by variable daily crossings (recently 31-40) and potential for further deterrence from elevated war-risk pricing or additional incidents. Macro factors such as oil export volumes and global supply-chain delays add to the volatility, as operators monitor real-time threat assessments ahead of the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
160-179 40%
180-199 40%
200+ 23%
<160 16%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 23, 2026
<160
16%
160-179
40%
180-199
40%
200+
23%
160-179 40%
180-199 40%
200+ 23%
<160 16%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 23, 2026
<160
$352 KL.
16%
160-179
$0 KL.
40%
180-199
$0 KL.
40%
200+
$0 KL.
23%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the deadly August 11 strike on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have intensified security risks and insurance premiums for Red Sea transits, prompting shippers to weigh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope despite added fuel and time costs. The July 20 Saudi blockade declaration triggered an initial 24% drop in weekly traffic to the low 260s from prior levels near 350, with volumes stabilizing around 266 amid selective dark and shadow-fleet movements, though mainstream tanker activity fell sharply. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities for the 160-179 and 180-199 bands driven by variable daily crossings (recently 31-40) and potential for further deterrence from elevated war-risk pricing or additional incidents. Macro factors such as oil export volumes and global supply-chain delays add to the volatility, as operators monitor real-time threat assessments ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Thị trường mở: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$352Ngày kết thúc
Aug 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the deadly August 11 strike on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have intensified security risks and insurance premiums for Red Sea transits, prompting shippers to weigh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope despite added fuel and time costs. The July 20 Saudi blockade declaration triggered an initial 24% drop in weekly traffic to the low 260s from prior levels near 350, with volumes stabilizing around 266 amid selective dark and shadow-fleet movements, though mainstream tanker activity fell sharply. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities for the 160-179 and 180-199 bands driven by variable daily crossings (recently 31-40) and potential for further deterrence from elevated war-risk pricing or additional incidents. Macro factors such as oil export volumes and global supply-chain delays add to the volatility, as operators monitor real-time threat assessments ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Khối lượng
$352Ngày kết thúc
Aug 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks, including the deadly August 11 strike on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have intensified security risks and insurance premiums for Red Sea transits, prompting shippers to weigh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope despite added fuel and time costs. The July 20 Saudi blockade declaration triggered an initial 24% drop in weekly traffic to the low 260s from prior levels near 350, with volumes stabilizing around 266 amid selective dark and shadow-fleet movements, though mainstream tanker activity fell sharply. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities for the 160-179 and 180-199 bands driven by variable daily crossings (recently 31-40) and potential for further deterrence from elevated war-risk pricing or additional incidents. Macro factors such as oil export volumes and global supply-chain delays add to the volatility, as operators monitor real-time threat assessments ahead of the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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