July's U.S. tornado count typically averages near 119, driven by modest atmospheric instability and wind shear along the northern jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around the 100–159 bins because preliminary reports through early August showed 98–128 confirmed tornadoes, with a notable July 21 outbreak contributing dozens amid otherwise subdued activity and limited tropical influences. Final NOAA Storm Prediction Center verification often adjusts preliminary tallies by 10–20% due to ongoing surveys, creating the near-even split between adjacent ranges. Historical July patterns and this season's cooler Midwest patterns versus warmer northern anomalies further support the tight market-implied odds around average levels.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Tornadoes in the US in July?
How many Tornadoes in the US in July?
310+ 4.5%
280–310 2.5%
<100 2.1%
250–279 <1%
$3,611 KL.
$3,611 KL.
Aug 1, 2026
<100
2%
100–129
50%
130–159
48%
160–189
48%
190–219
38%
220–249
47%
250–279
1%
280–310
3%
310+
5%
310+ 4.5%
280–310 2.5%
<100 2.1%
250–279 <1%
$3,611 KL.
$3,611 KL.
Aug 1, 2026
<100
$808 KL.
2%
100–129
$372 KL.
50%
130–159
$285 KL.
48%
160–189
$356 KL.
48%
190–219
$320 KL.
38%
220–249
$303 KL.
47%
250–279
$426 KL.
1%
280–310
$400 KL.
3%
310+
$342 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.July's U.S. tornado count typically averages near 119, driven by modest atmospheric instability and wind shear along the northern jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around the 100–159 bins because preliminary reports through early August showed 98–128 confirmed tornadoes, with a notable July 21 outbreak contributing dozens amid otherwise subdued activity and limited tropical influences. Final NOAA Storm Prediction Center verification often adjusts preliminary tallies by 10–20% due to ongoing surveys, creating the near-even split between adjacent ranges. Historical July patterns and this season's cooler Midwest patterns versus warmer northern anomalies further support the tight market-implied odds around average levels.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,611Ngày kết thúc
Aug 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.July's U.S. tornado count typically averages near 119, driven by modest atmospheric instability and wind shear along the northern jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around the 100–159 bins because preliminary reports through early August showed 98–128 confirmed tornadoes, with a notable July 21 outbreak contributing dozens amid otherwise subdued activity and limited tropical influences. Final NOAA Storm Prediction Center verification often adjusts preliminary tallies by 10–20% due to ongoing surveys, creating the near-even split between adjacent ranges. Historical July patterns and this season's cooler Midwest patterns versus warmer northern anomalies further support the tight market-implied odds around average levels.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Khối lượng
$3,611Ngày kết thúc
Aug 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...July's U.S. tornado count typically averages near 119, driven by modest atmospheric instability and wind shear along the northern jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around the 100–159 bins because preliminary reports through early August showed 98–128 confirmed tornadoes, with a notable July 21 outbreak contributing dozens amid otherwise subdued activity and limited tropical influences. Final NOAA Storm Prediction Center verification often adjusts preliminary tallies by 10–20% due to ongoing surveys, creating the near-even split between adjacent ranges. Historical July patterns and this season's cooler Midwest patterns versus warmer northern anomalies further support the tight market-implied odds around average levels.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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