Forecast models from European meteorological agencies indicate a warm air mass advecting into central Poland on August 1, supporting afternoon highs near 31°C, yet with moderate instability triggering thundershowers that could limit peak readings through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling. This uncertainty between 30–32°C drives the tightly bunched market-implied odds, as convective timing and cloud cover remain key variables in short-range guidance. Above the 26°C August climatological average, the setup reflects typical late-summer patterns where brief storms introduce 1–2°C variability in observed maxima. Updated model runs later today will refine resolution criteria for the daily high measured at official Warsaw stations.