Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and Roshydromet centers converges on an afternoon maximum of 20–22°C in Moscow on August 20 under mostly cloudy skies and light northwest winds that limit daytime heating. This narrow model spread aligns with late-summer climatology, where average highs decline toward 20–23°C amid modest moisture and stable steering patterns. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because the primary variables—cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak advection—show limited variability in the latest runs, though minor forecast adjustments before resolution could still shift the precise peak by 1–2°C.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Moscow on August 20?
21°C 34%
20°C 33%
19°C 17%
22°C 16%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
3%
19°C
17%
20°C
33%
21°C
34%
22°C
24%
23°C
11%
24°C
7%
25°C
7%
26°C or higher
2%
21°C 34%
20°C 33%
19°C 17%
22°C 16%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
3%
19°C
17%
20°C
33%
21°C
34%
22°C
24%
23°C
11%
24°C
7%
25°C
7%
26°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and Roshydromet centers converges on an afternoon maximum of 20–22°C in Moscow on August 20 under mostly cloudy skies and light northwest winds that limit daytime heating. This narrow model spread aligns with late-summer climatology, where average highs decline toward 20–23°C amid modest moisture and stable steering patterns. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because the primary variables—cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak advection—show limited variability in the latest runs, though minor forecast adjustments before resolution could still shift the precise peak by 1–2°C.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật

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