Latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Houston shows ensemble means clustered in the mid-90s Fahrenheit for August 15, with the 96-97°F bin leading at 38% implied probability due to strong diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. The closely contested 94-95°F outcome at 34% reflects uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze timing and possible thin cloud cover that could shave 1–2°F off peak readings. Historical August climatology places normal highs near 95°F, but recent model runs highlight small spread from urban heat-island amplification versus Gulf moisture advection. Key resolution hinges on official NWS thermometer data at Bush Intercontinental Airport, with final verification expected the following morning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Houston on August 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 15?
96-97°F 38%
94-95°F 35%
98-99°F 12%
92-93°F 10%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
3%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
35%
96-97°F
38%
98-99°F
12%
100-101°F
3%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 38%
94-95°F 35%
98-99°F 12%
92-93°F 10%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
$0 KL.
<1%
86-87°F
$80 KL.
1%
88-89°F
$150 KL.
2%
90-91°F
$80 KL.
3%
92-93°F
$87 KL.
10%
94-95°F
$17 KL.
35%
96-97°F
$1,072 KL.
38%
98-99°F
$245 KL.
12%
100-101°F
$43 KL.
3%
102-103°F
$227 KL.
<1%
104°F or higher
$223 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Houston shows ensemble means clustered in the mid-90s Fahrenheit for August 15, with the 96-97°F bin leading at 38% implied probability due to strong diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. The closely contested 94-95°F outcome at 34% reflects uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze timing and possible thin cloud cover that could shave 1–2°F off peak readings. Historical August climatology places normal highs near 95°F, but recent model runs highlight small spread from urban heat-island amplification versus Gulf moisture advection. Key resolution hinges on official NWS thermometer data at Bush Intercontinental Airport, with final verification expected the following morning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,225Ngày kết thúc
Aug 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Houston shows ensemble means clustered in the mid-90s Fahrenheit for August 15, with the 96-97°F bin leading at 38% implied probability due to strong diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. The closely contested 94-95°F outcome at 34% reflects uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze timing and possible thin cloud cover that could shave 1–2°F off peak readings. Historical August climatology places normal highs near 95°F, but recent model runs highlight small spread from urban heat-island amplification versus Gulf moisture advection. Key resolution hinges on official NWS thermometer data at Bush Intercontinental Airport, with final verification expected the following morning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$2,225Ngày kết thúc
Aug 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Houston shows ensemble means clustered in the mid-90s Fahrenheit for August 15, with the 96-97°F bin leading at 38% implied probability due to strong diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. The closely contested 94-95°F outcome at 34% reflects uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze timing and possible thin cloud cover that could shave 1–2°F off peak readings. Historical August climatology places normal highs near 95°F, but recent model runs highlight small spread from urban heat-island amplification versus Gulf moisture advection. Key resolution hinges on official NWS thermometer data at Bush Intercontinental Airport, with final verification expected the following morning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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