Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of early September 2026, driven by iterative reasoning improvements, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, and other domains. This rapid climb from mid-40s percent earlier in the year reflects competitive pressure among frontier labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trailing by several points while Google and smaller players post lower figures. Trader sentiment on the overall 2026 high centers on continued model cadence and reasoning optimizations before year-end, tempered by the benchmark’s design to resist quick saturation and the possibility of evaluation-condition differences across sources. Key near-term catalysts include additional 2026 releases and any official tool-use or multimodal updates that could shift the frontier.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$53,587 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
60%+
66%
65%+
31%
70%+
17%
75%+
12%
80%+
7%
90%+
4%
$53,587 KL.
60%+
$28,525 KL.
66%
65%+
$13,582 KL.
31%
70%+
$5,265 KL.
17%
75%+
$2,857 KL.
12%
80%+
$1,151 KL.
7%
90%+
$2,206 KL.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of early September 2026, driven by iterative reasoning improvements, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, and other domains. This rapid climb from mid-40s percent earlier in the year reflects competitive pressure among frontier labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trailing by several points while Google and smaller players post lower figures. Trader sentiment on the overall 2026 high centers on continued model cadence and reasoning optimizations before year-end, tempered by the benchmark’s design to resist quick saturation and the possibility of evaluation-condition differences across sources. Key near-term catalysts include additional 2026 releases and any official tool-use or multimodal updates that could shift the frontier.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Khối lượng
$53,587Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://agi.safe.ai/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of early September 2026, driven by iterative reasoning improvements, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, and other domains. This rapid climb from mid-40s percent earlier in the year reflects competitive pressure among frontier labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trailing by several points while Google and smaller players post lower figures. Trader sentiment on the overall 2026 high centers on continued model cadence and reasoning optimizations before year-end, tempered by the benchmark’s design to resist quick saturation and the possibility of evaluation-condition differences across sources. Key near-term catalysts include additional 2026 releases and any official tool-use or multimodal updates that could shift the frontier.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$53,587Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://agi.safe.ai/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of early September 2026, driven by iterative reasoning improvements, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, and other domains. This rapid climb from mid-40s percent earlier in the year reflects competitive pressure among frontier labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trailing by several points while Google and smaller players post lower figures. Trader sentiment on the overall 2026 high centers on continued model cadence and reasoning optimizations before year-end, tempered by the benchmark’s design to resist quick saturation and the possibility of evaluation-condition differences across sources. Key near-term catalysts include additional 2026 releases and any official tool-use or multimodal updates that could shift the frontier.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
90%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
44%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
90%
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