Google DeepMind's rapid iteration on the Gemini series, including the 2025 launch of Gemini 3 Pro and subsequent 2026 previews like Gemini 3.1 Pro, drives current trader focus on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question benchmark testing expert-level reasoning across disciplines. Recent Gemini variants have posted scores in the 37–45% range on HLE, trailing leaders like Claude Fable 5 at 53%, yet Google's integration of advanced reasoning modes and scale advantages could narrow gaps through 2026. Key catalysts include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and direct benchmark comparisons with GPT and Claude iterations that historically shift leaderboard positions. Traders watch for confirmed capability jumps versus incremental gains amid typical release timelines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
68%
55%+
58%
60%+
27%
65%+
11%
70%+
7%
$730 KL.
50%+
$222 KL.
68%
55%+
$0 KL.
58%
60%+
$508 KL.
27%
65%+
$0 KL.
11%
70%+
$0 KL.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google DeepMind's rapid iteration on the Gemini series, including the 2025 launch of Gemini 3 Pro and subsequent 2026 previews like Gemini 3.1 Pro, drives current trader focus on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question benchmark testing expert-level reasoning across disciplines. Recent Gemini variants have posted scores in the 37–45% range on HLE, trailing leaders like Claude Fable 5 at 53%, yet Google's integration of advanced reasoning modes and scale advantages could narrow gaps through 2026. Key catalysts include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and direct benchmark comparisons with GPT and Claude iterations that historically shift leaderboard positions. Traders watch for confirmed capability jumps versus incremental gains amid typical release timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$730Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google DeepMind's rapid iteration on the Gemini series, including the 2025 launch of Gemini 3 Pro and subsequent 2026 previews like Gemini 3.1 Pro, drives current trader focus on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question benchmark testing expert-level reasoning across disciplines. Recent Gemini variants have posted scores in the 37–45% range on HLE, trailing leaders like Claude Fable 5 at 53%, yet Google's integration of advanced reasoning modes and scale advantages could narrow gaps through 2026. Key catalysts include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and direct benchmark comparisons with GPT and Claude iterations that historically shift leaderboard positions. Traders watch for confirmed capability jumps versus incremental gains amid typical release timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$730Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google DeepMind's rapid iteration on the Gemini series, including the 2025 launch of Gemini 3 Pro and subsequent 2026 previews like Gemini 3.1 Pro, drives current trader focus on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question benchmark testing expert-level reasoning across disciplines. Recent Gemini variants have posted scores in the 37–45% range on HLE, trailing leaders like Claude Fable 5 at 53%, yet Google's integration of advanced reasoning modes and scale advantages could narrow gaps through 2026. Key catalysts include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and direct benchmark comparisons with GPT and Claude iterations that historically shift leaderboard positions. Traders watch for confirmed capability jumps versus incremental gains amid typical release timelines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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