Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model, has anchored trader sentiment by posting 56% on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without—placing it among the top open-weight entries and competitive with several GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus variants. Continued gains depend on further scaling of agentic tool use, reinforcement learning for long-horizon reasoning, and potential K3 iterations before year-end, as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead overall leaderboards near 65%. The market reflects uncertainty over whether Moonshot can close the remaining gap through rapid Chinese AI development cycles or if US labs’ closed models will widen their edge on this expert-level, multi-domain benchmark.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$55,347 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
85%
50%+
34%
55%+
23%
60%+
11%
65%+
8%
$55,347 KL.
45%+
$13,699 KL.
85%
50%+
$19,352 KL.
34%
55%+
$10,957 KL.
23%
60%+
$9,708 KL.
11%
65%+
$1,632 KL.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model, has anchored trader sentiment by posting 56% on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without—placing it among the top open-weight entries and competitive with several GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus variants. Continued gains depend on further scaling of agentic tool use, reinforcement learning for long-horizon reasoning, and potential K3 iterations before year-end, as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead overall leaderboards near 65%. The market reflects uncertainty over whether Moonshot can close the remaining gap through rapid Chinese AI development cycles or if US labs’ closed models will widen their edge on this expert-level, multi-domain benchmark.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$55,347Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://agi.safe.ai/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model, has anchored trader sentiment by posting 56% on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without—placing it among the top open-weight entries and competitive with several GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus variants. Continued gains depend on further scaling of agentic tool use, reinforcement learning for long-horizon reasoning, and potential K3 iterations before year-end, as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead overall leaderboards near 65%. The market reflects uncertainty over whether Moonshot can close the remaining gap through rapid Chinese AI development cycles or if US labs’ closed models will widen their edge on this expert-level, multi-domain benchmark.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$55,347Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://agi.safe.ai/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model, has anchored trader sentiment by posting 56% on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without—placing it among the top open-weight entries and competitive with several GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus variants. Continued gains depend on further scaling of agentic tool use, reinforcement learning for long-horizon reasoning, and potential K3 iterations before year-end, as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead overall leaderboards near 65%. The market reflects uncertainty over whether Moonshot can close the remaining gap through rapid Chinese AI development cycles or if US labs’ closed models will widen their edge on this expert-level, multi-domain benchmark.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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