PL maintains a leading position in the Chamber of Deputies race due to its status as the largest single-party caucus with roughly 98 seats, bolstered by established state-level infrastructure, candidate recruitment, and alignment with the competitive right-wing presidential bid of Flávio Bolsonaro. The proportional open-list system favors parties with broad name recognition and organizational reach ahead of the October 4 vote. UPB, the recently formalized federation uniting União Brasil and Progressistas with a comparable current seat count, trails closely as a consolidated center-right option but faces greater internal fragmentation. Other blocs such as FE Brasil and smaller parties register minimal probabilities, reflecting limited scale, electoral thresholds, and the expected high incumbent re-election rate that reinforces the dominance of major established groups. Recent campaign developments, including the start of free electoral broadcasts, have sustained this positioning without major shifts.