Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election consistently places the SPD in the low-to-mid teens, with the latest Infratest dimap (late August) at 11%, Forsa at 12%, and INSA at 15%. This reflects the party’s national weakness and its position as junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, down sharply from 18.4% in the 2023 repeat election. Gains by the Left and AfD, combined with steady CDU and Green support, have crowded the SPD into fifth place across multiple surveys. Traders have aligned the 10-13% bucket as the highest-probability outcome, reflecting the narrow clustering of recent fieldwork and limited evidence of a late rebound.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtBerlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
10-13% 62%
13-16% 21%
<10% 11.9%
16%+ 8%
$10,081 KL.
$10,081 KL.
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
12%
10-13%
62%
13-16%
21%
16%+
8%
10-13% 62%
13-16% 21%
<10% 11.9%
16%+ 8%
$10,081 KL.
$10,081 KL.
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
$2,090 KL.
12%
10-13%
$3,606 KL.
62%
13-16%
$1,985 KL.
21%
16%+
$2,400 KL.
8%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election consistently places the SPD in the low-to-mid teens, with the latest Infratest dimap (late August) at 11%, Forsa at 12%, and INSA at 15%. This reflects the party’s national weakness and its position as junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, down sharply from 18.4% in the 2023 repeat election. Gains by the Left and AfD, combined with steady CDU and Green support, have crowded the SPD into fifth place across multiple surveys. Traders have aligned the 10-13% bucket as the highest-probability outcome, reflecting the narrow clustering of recent fieldwork and limited evidence of a late rebound.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,081Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election consistently places the SPD in the low-to-mid teens, with the latest Infratest dimap (late August) at 11%, Forsa at 12%, and INSA at 15%. This reflects the party’s national weakness and its position as junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, down sharply from 18.4% in the 2023 repeat election. Gains by the Left and AfD, combined with steady CDU and Green support, have crowded the SPD into fifth place across multiple surveys. Traders have aligned the 10-13% bucket as the highest-probability outcome, reflecting the narrow clustering of recent fieldwork and limited evidence of a late rebound.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Khối lượng
$10,081Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election consistently places the SPD in the low-to-mid teens, with the latest Infratest dimap (late August) at 11%, Forsa at 12%, and INSA at 15%. This reflects the party’s national weakness and its position as junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, down sharply from 18.4% in the 2023 repeat election. Gains by the Left and AfD, combined with steady CDU and Green support, have crowded the SPD into fifth place across multiple surveys. Traders have aligned the 10-13% bucket as the highest-probability outcome, reflecting the narrow clustering of recent fieldwork and limited evidence of a late rebound.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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