Skip to main content
icon for Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?

Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?

icon for Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?

Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?

41% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
41% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current quiet conditions in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, with no active tropical cyclones as of early August 2026 and the recent dissipation of Category 5 Hurricane Genevieve on August 2, support the 59.5% market-implied odds against formation by August 14. National Hurricane Center outlooks indicate low near-term genesis potential, with formation chances near 0% through 48 hours and around 30% over seven days amid limited disturbances and steering patterns unfavorable for rapid development. While seasonal forecasts anticipate above-normal activity overall due to emerging El Niño conditions, the compressed six-day window favors limited cyclogenesis before the deadline, consistent with historical analogs for early August lulls. Updated model runs and NHC briefings in the coming days will provide key signals for any shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.

If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Обсяг
$320
Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET

Джерело вирішення

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current quiet conditions in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, with no active tropical cyclones as of early August 2026 and the recent dissipation of Category 5 Hurricane Genevieve on August 2, support the 59.5% market-implied odds against formation by August 14. National Hurricane Center outlooks indicate low near-term genesis potential, with formation chances near 0% through 48 hours and around 30% over seven days amid limited disturbances and steering patterns unfavorable for rapid development. While seasonal forecasts anticipate above-normal activity overall due to emerging El Niño conditions, the compressed six-day window favors limited cyclogenesis before the deadline, consistent with historical analogs for early August lulls. Updated model runs and NHC briefings in the coming days will provide key signals for any shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.

If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Обсяг
$320
Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET

Джерело вирішення

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.

Пов'язане

icon for Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?

14%
icon for Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Cristobal?

Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Cristobal?

42%
icon for Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

41%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 41% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 41¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 41%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Aug 7, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?» — 41% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 41% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.