**Robust projected GDP growth near 2.2% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment holding around 4.4–4.6%, underpins the 65.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2027.** Forecasters including the CBO and Philadelphia Fed survey highlight resilient expansion driven by business investment—particularly AI-related capital spending—fiscal support, and healthy corporate and household balance sheets, even as consumer spending moderates. Inflation remains sticky above the Fed’s 2% target at roughly 2.7–3%, prompting the central bank to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026, with limited near-term easing expected. The New York Fed’s yield-curve recession probability stands at just 17.6% through April 2027, while smoothed recession indicators remain near zero. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI and employment releases, and any shifts in fiscal or trade policy that could alter growth trajectories. Traders view these conditions as consistent with expansion rather than contraction through the forecast horizon, though downside risks from persistent price pressures or labor-market softening persist.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено35% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2027
35% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product**Robust projected GDP growth near 2.2% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment holding around 4.4–4.6%, underpins the 65.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2027.**
Forecasters including the CBO and Philadelphia Fed survey highlight resilient expansion driven by business investment—particularly AI-related capital spending—fiscal support, and healthy corporate and household balance sheets, even as consumer spending moderates. Inflation remains sticky above the Fed’s 2% target at roughly 2.7–3%, prompting the central bank to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026, with limited near-term easing expected.
The New York Fed’s yield-curve recession probability stands at just 17.6% through April 2027, while smoothed recession indicators remain near zero. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI and employment releases, and any shifts in fiscal or trade policy that could alter growth trajectories. Traders view these conditions as consistent with expansion rather than contraction through the forecast horizon, though downside risks from persistent price pressures or labor-market softening persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$2Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product**Robust projected GDP growth near 2.2% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment holding around 4.4–4.6%, underpins the 65.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2027.**
Forecasters including the CBO and Philadelphia Fed survey highlight resilient expansion driven by business investment—particularly AI-related capital spending—fiscal support, and healthy corporate and household balance sheets, even as consumer spending moderates. Inflation remains sticky above the Fed’s 2% target at roughly 2.7–3%, prompting the central bank to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026, with limited near-term easing expected.
The New York Fed’s yield-curve recession probability stands at just 17.6% through April 2027, while smoothed recession indicators remain near zero. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI and employment releases, and any shifts in fiscal or trade policy that could alter growth trajectories. Traders view these conditions as consistent with expansion rather than contraction through the forecast horizon, though downside risks from persistent price pressures or labor-market softening persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Обсяг
$2Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Robust projected GDP growth near 2.2% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment holding around 4.4–4.6%, underpins the 65.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2027.** Forecasters including the CBO and Philadelphia Fed survey highlight resilient expansion driven by business investment—particularly AI-related capital spending—fiscal support, and healthy corporate and household balance sheets, even as consumer spending moderates. Inflation remains sticky above the Fed’s 2% target at roughly 2.7–3%, prompting the central bank to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026, with limited near-term easing expected. The New York Fed’s yield-curve recession probability stands at just 17.6% through April 2027, while smoothed recession indicators remain near zero. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI and employment releases, and any shifts in fiscal or trade policy that could alter growth trajectories. Traders view these conditions as consistent with expansion rather than contraction through the forecast horizon, though downside risks from persistent price pressures or labor-market softening persist.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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