Traders assign a 99.3% probability against Ukraine signing a comprehensive peace agreement with Russia by August 31 because formal negotiations have remained stalled since trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva ended without progress in February 2026. Core disputes over territorial control of remaining Donbas areas, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s potential NATO alignment persist, with Moscow insisting on maximalist concessions that Kyiv has consistently rejected. Kremlin statements in July confirmed no immediate resumption of talks, while battlefield operations have continued into August with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian strikes. The one-week window leaves insufficient time for the diplomatic sequencing, verification mechanisms, or political approvals typically required to finalize and sign such an accord. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or externally imposed ceasefire could theoretically alter the outcome, though entrenched positions and lack of active mediation make this improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено<1% шанс
$272,219 Обс.
$272,219 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% шанс
$272,219 Обс.
$272,219 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 99.3% probability against Ukraine signing a comprehensive peace agreement with Russia by August 31 because formal negotiations have remained stalled since trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva ended without progress in February 2026. Core disputes over territorial control of remaining Donbas areas, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s potential NATO alignment persist, with Moscow insisting on maximalist concessions that Kyiv has consistently rejected. Kremlin statements in July confirmed no immediate resumption of talks, while battlefield operations have continued into August with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian strikes. The one-week window leaves insufficient time for the diplomatic sequencing, verification mechanisms, or political approvals typically required to finalize and sign such an accord. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or externally imposed ceasefire could theoretically alter the outcome, though entrenched positions and lack of active mediation make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Обсяг
$272,219Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 99.3% probability against Ukraine signing a comprehensive peace agreement with Russia by August 31 because formal negotiations have remained stalled since trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva ended without progress in February 2026. Core disputes over territorial control of remaining Donbas areas, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s potential NATO alignment persist, with Moscow insisting on maximalist concessions that Kyiv has consistently rejected. Kremlin statements in July confirmed no immediate resumption of talks, while battlefield operations have continued into August with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian strikes. The one-week window leaves insufficient time for the diplomatic sequencing, verification mechanisms, or political approvals typically required to finalize and sign such an accord. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or externally imposed ceasefire could theoretically alter the outcome, though entrenched positions and lack of active mediation make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$272,219Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.3% probability against Ukraine signing a comprehensive peace agreement with Russia by August 31 because formal negotiations have remained stalled since trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva ended without progress in February 2026. Core disputes over territorial control of remaining Donbas areas, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s potential NATO alignment persist, with Moscow insisting on maximalist concessions that Kyiv has consistently rejected. Kremlin statements in July confirmed no immediate resumption of talks, while battlefield operations have continued into August with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian strikes. The one-week window leaves insufficient time for the diplomatic sequencing, verification mechanisms, or political approvals typically required to finalize and sign such an accord. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or externally imposed ceasefire could theoretically alter the outcome, though entrenched positions and lack of active mediation make this improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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