Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven a sustained 24% reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266–269 ships after an initial post-July 20 drop from 354. This level aligns with the market’s leading 220+ outcome at 45.5% implied probability, though the near-parity with the 180–199 bin at 40.5% reflects trader uncertainty over potential short-term rebounds or further deterrence from ongoing regional tensions. Broader tanker traffic, particularly non-shadow-fleet volumes, has seen sharper 42% declines, while macro factors such as rerouting incentives and seasonal demand provide limited offsetting support ahead of the August 24–30 resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
180-199 22%
<160 20%
160-179 20%
200-219 14%
НОВЕ
$12,851 Обс.
НОВЕ
$12,851 Обс.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
20%
160-179
20%
180-199
22%
200-219
24%
220+
43%
180-199 22%
<160 20%
160-179 20%
200-219 14%
НОВЕ
$12,851 Обс.
НОВЕ
$12,851 Обс.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$0 Обс.
20%
160-179
$0 Обс.
20%
180-199
$0 Обс.
22%
200-219
$12,769 Обс.
24%
220+
$82 Обс.
43%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven a sustained 24% reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266–269 ships after an initial post-July 20 drop from 354. This level aligns with the market’s leading 220+ outcome at 45.5% implied probability, though the near-parity with the 180–199 bin at 40.5% reflects trader uncertainty over potential short-term rebounds or further deterrence from ongoing regional tensions. Broader tanker traffic, particularly non-shadow-fleet volumes, has seen sharper 42% declines, while macro factors such as rerouting incentives and seasonal demand provide limited offsetting support ahead of the August 24–30 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$12,851Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven a sustained 24% reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266–269 ships after an initial post-July 20 drop from 354. This level aligns with the market’s leading 220+ outcome at 45.5% implied probability, though the near-parity with the 180–199 bin at 40.5% reflects trader uncertainty over potential short-term rebounds or further deterrence from ongoing regional tensions. Broader tanker traffic, particularly non-shadow-fleet volumes, has seen sharper 42% declines, while macro factors such as rerouting incentives and seasonal demand provide limited offsetting support ahead of the August 24–30 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$12,851Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven a sustained 24% reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266–269 ships after an initial post-July 20 drop from 354. This level aligns with the market’s leading 220+ outcome at 45.5% implied probability, though the near-parity with the 180–199 bin at 40.5% reflects trader uncertainty over potential short-term rebounds or further deterrence from ongoing regional tensions. Broader tanker traffic, particularly non-shadow-fleet volumes, has seen sharper 42% declines, while macro factors such as rerouting incentives and seasonal demand provide limited offsetting support ahead of the August 24–30 resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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