Legislative requirements form the core barrier keeping the implied probability of a Trump $250 bill at just 2.6% for passage this year. Current law limits U.S. currency portraits to deceased individuals, and the dedicated House measure to authorize a new denomination and exception remains stalled in committee without floor votes or Senate companion progress as of mid-2026. Treasury officials have prepared designs tied to the semiquincentennial but repeatedly stated that only congressional enactment would permit printing or issuance. With limited session time remaining and competing appropriations priorities, traders view enactment before year-end as improbable. A last-minute floor vote and swift bicameral reconciliation before adjournment could still shift the outcome.