Nigel Farage’s resignation in early July 2026 triggered the Clacton by-election held on 13 August, which he won with 63.3% of the vote and a majority of over 12,000, restoring his position as Reform UK MP. With the seat now held following that contest and no reported further parliamentary investigations, health issues, or statements indicating an imminent second vacancy, traders assess the chance of another by-election being called before the end of 2026 as low. UK parliamentary rules require a vacancy—typically through resignation, death, or disqualification—before a by-election can be called, and no such developments have emerged in the days since the August result. The next scheduled general election remains years away, reinforcing the current market pricing.