Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance for New York City on August 18, 2026, indicate an overnight low near 72–74°F driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. These conditions suppress typical nocturnal temperature drops, keeping the minimum well above the 1991–2020 Central Park August average of ~69°F and explaining why the 74–75°F bin holds the highest implied probability at 61%. Upper-level ridging and elevated dew points in the upper 60s further anchor warmth through the night. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily against historical analogs, with only modest probability assigned to cooler outcomes should clearer skies or a brief frontal passage enhance cooling. Updated NWS briefings and real-time observations from Central Park remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in NYC on August 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 18?
74-75°F 70%
72-73°F 25%
70-71°F 6%
78-79°F 3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 18, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
70%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 70%
72-73°F 25%
70-71°F 6%
78-79°F 3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 18, 2026
63°F or below
$150 Обс.
<1%
64-65°F
$150 Обс.
<1%
66-67°F
$201 Обс.
<1%
68-69°F
$31 Обс.
3%
70-71°F
$175 Обс.
6%
72-73°F
$262 Обс.
25%
74-75°F
$467 Обс.
70%
76-77°F
$1,763 Обс.
1%
78-79°F
$834 Обс.
3%
80-81°F
$1,628 Обс.
<1%
82°F or higher
$421 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance for New York City on August 18, 2026, indicate an overnight low near 72–74°F driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. These conditions suppress typical nocturnal temperature drops, keeping the minimum well above the 1991–2020 Central Park August average of ~69°F and explaining why the 74–75°F bin holds the highest implied probability at 61%. Upper-level ridging and elevated dew points in the upper 60s further anchor warmth through the night. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily against historical analogs, with only modest probability assigned to cooler outcomes should clearer skies or a brief frontal passage enhance cooling. Updated NWS briefings and real-time observations from Central Park remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,065Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance for New York City on August 18, 2026, indicate an overnight low near 72–74°F driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. These conditions suppress typical nocturnal temperature drops, keeping the minimum well above the 1991–2020 Central Park August average of ~69°F and explaining why the 74–75°F bin holds the highest implied probability at 61%. Upper-level ridging and elevated dew points in the upper 60s further anchor warmth through the night. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily against historical analogs, with only modest probability assigned to cooler outcomes should clearer skies or a brief frontal passage enhance cooling. Updated NWS briefings and real-time observations from Central Park remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,065Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance for New York City on August 18, 2026, indicate an overnight low near 72–74°F driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. These conditions suppress typical nocturnal temperature drops, keeping the minimum well above the 1991–2020 Central Park August average of ~69°F and explaining why the 74–75°F bin holds the highest implied probability at 61%. Upper-level ridging and elevated dew points in the upper 60s further anchor warmth through the night. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily against historical analogs, with only modest probability assigned to cooler outcomes should clearer skies or a brief frontal passage enhance cooling. Updated NWS briefings and real-time observations from Central Park remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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