Ongoing diplomatic negotiations and IAEA verification disputes following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 represent the primary factors behind the 95.5% trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Those operations damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, leaving large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried or inaccessible while Iran maintains its public position against weaponization. Limited IAEA access since February 2026, combined with the June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Tehran to the nuclear status quo and potential down-blending under supervision, has reinforced expectations of continued restraint. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a collapse in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, accelerated activity at undeclared underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, or a policy reversal amid leadership changes, though the short remaining timeline and persistent international monitoring make such developments unlikely to produce a test by year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% шанс
$251,652 Обс.
$251,652 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
5% шанс
$251,652 Обс.
$251,652 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic negotiations and IAEA verification disputes following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 represent the primary factors behind the 95.5% trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Those operations damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, leaving large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried or inaccessible while Iran maintains its public position against weaponization. Limited IAEA access since February 2026, combined with the June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Tehran to the nuclear status quo and potential down-blending under supervision, has reinforced expectations of continued restraint. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a collapse in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, accelerated activity at undeclared underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, or a policy reversal amid leadership changes, though the short remaining timeline and persistent international monitoring make such developments unlikely to produce a test by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$251,652Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic negotiations and IAEA verification disputes following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 represent the primary factors behind the 95.5% trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Those operations damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, leaving large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried or inaccessible while Iran maintains its public position against weaponization. Limited IAEA access since February 2026, combined with the June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Tehran to the nuclear status quo and potential down-blending under supervision, has reinforced expectations of continued restraint. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a collapse in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, accelerated activity at undeclared underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, or a policy reversal amid leadership changes, though the short remaining timeline and persistent international monitoring make such developments unlikely to produce a test by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$251,652Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic negotiations and IAEA verification disputes following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 represent the primary factors behind the 95.5% trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Those operations damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, leaving large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried or inaccessible while Iran maintains its public position against weaponization. Limited IAEA access since February 2026, combined with the June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Tehran to the nuclear status quo and potential down-blending under supervision, has reinforced expectations of continued restraint. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a collapse in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, accelerated activity at undeclared underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, or a policy reversal amid leadership changes, though the short remaining timeline and persistent international monitoring make such developments unlikely to produce a test by year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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