President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, initially raised expectations around resuming activities after the 1992 U.S. moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical measures at sites like the Nevada National Security Site, while annual stockpile stewardship assessments continue to affirm no technical requirement for full-yield explosive tests. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms control constraint, yet congressional oversight of National Nuclear Security Administration funding, diplomatic signaling, and multi-month readiness timelines sustain trader consensus on low near-term probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$668,887 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
30 червня 2026 року
1%
30 вересня 2026 року
5%
31 грудня 2026 року
8%
$668,887 Обс.
30 червня 2026 року
$41,041 Обс.
1%
30 вересня 2026 року
$7,044 Обс.
5%
31 грудня 2026 року
$10,584 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, initially raised expectations around resuming activities after the 1992 U.S. moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical measures at sites like the Nevada National Security Site, while annual stockpile stewardship assessments continue to affirm no technical requirement for full-yield explosive tests. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms control constraint, yet congressional oversight of National Nuclear Security Administration funding, diplomatic signaling, and multi-month readiness timelines sustain trader consensus on low near-term probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$668,887Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, initially raised expectations around resuming activities after the 1992 U.S. moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical measures at sites like the Nevada National Security Site, while annual stockpile stewardship assessments continue to affirm no technical requirement for full-yield explosive tests. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms control constraint, yet congressional oversight of National Nuclear Security Administration funding, diplomatic signaling, and multi-month readiness timelines sustain trader consensus on low near-term probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$668,887Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, initially raised expectations around resuming activities after the 1992 U.S. moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical measures at sites like the Nevada National Security Site, while annual stockpile stewardship assessments continue to affirm no technical requirement for full-yield explosive tests. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one arms control constraint, yet congressional oversight of National Nuclear Security Administration funding, diplomatic signaling, and multi-month readiness timelines sustain trader consensus on low near-term probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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