**Congressional leaders have advanced clean continuing resolutions (CRs) well ahead of the September 30 funding deadline, materially lowering the risk of an appropriations lapse on October 1.** The House passed a measure in July extending current funding levels through early December, and the Senate followed on August 8 with its version approved 90-6, now awaiting House consideration. These steps reflect deliberate efforts to sidestep disruptions ahead of the November midterms, consistent with recent patterns where both parties have prioritized short-term extensions over brinkmanship. With no major unresolved disputes blocking enactment and both chambers signaling support for a stopgap, traders assign an 88% probability to no lapse. The recent Senate vote and procedural momentum provide the primary driver behind current market pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено12% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 1, 2026
12% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Congressional leaders have advanced clean continuing resolutions (CRs) well ahead of the September 30 funding deadline, materially lowering the risk of an appropriations lapse on October 1.** The House passed a measure in July extending current funding levels through early December, and the Senate followed on August 8 with its version approved 90-6, now awaiting House consideration. These steps reflect deliberate efforts to sidestep disruptions ahead of the November midterms, consistent with recent patterns where both parties have prioritized short-term extensions over brinkmanship. With no major unresolved disputes blocking enactment and both chambers signaling support for a stopgap, traders assign an 88% probability to no lapse. The recent Senate vote and procedural momentum provide the primary driver behind current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,340Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Congressional leaders have advanced clean continuing resolutions (CRs) well ahead of the September 30 funding deadline, materially lowering the risk of an appropriations lapse on October 1.** The House passed a measure in July extending current funding levels through early December, and the Senate followed on August 8 with its version approved 90-6, now awaiting House consideration. These steps reflect deliberate efforts to sidestep disruptions ahead of the November midterms, consistent with recent patterns where both parties have prioritized short-term extensions over brinkmanship. With no major unresolved disputes blocking enactment and both chambers signaling support for a stopgap, traders assign an 88% probability to no lapse. The recent Senate vote and procedural momentum provide the primary driver behind current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$1,340Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Congressional leaders have advanced clean continuing resolutions (CRs) well ahead of the September 30 funding deadline, materially lowering the risk of an appropriations lapse on October 1.** The House passed a measure in July extending current funding levels through early December, and the Senate followed on August 8 with its version approved 90-6, now awaiting House consideration. These steps reflect deliberate efforts to sidestep disruptions ahead of the November midterms, consistent with recent patterns where both parties have prioritized short-term extensions over brinkmanship. With no major unresolved disputes blocking enactment and both chambers signaling support for a stopgap, traders assign an 88% probability to no lapse. The recent Senate vote and procedural momentum provide the primary driver behind current market pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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