Persistent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, alongside August unemployment holding at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, anchor trader consensus around a 60.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Resilient growth and energy-driven price pressures have shifted market-implied rate paths higher, elevating the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while compressing expectations for cuts. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot updates reinforce a higher terminal rate outlook near 3.8% by late 2026. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent data will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation persistence.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 61%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,478 Обс.
$62,478 Обс.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
25%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,478 Обс.
$62,478 Обс.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,099 Обс.
3%
25 bps decrease
$11,934 Обс.
14%
No change
$19,062 Обс.
61%
25 bps increase
$15,867 Обс.
25%
50+ bps increase
$2,515 Обс.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, alongside August unemployment holding at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, anchor trader consensus around a 60.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Resilient growth and energy-driven price pressures have shifted market-implied rate paths higher, elevating the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while compressing expectations for cuts. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot updates reinforce a higher terminal rate outlook near 3.8% by late 2026. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent data will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation persistence.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$62,478Дата завершення
Jan 27, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, alongside August unemployment holding at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, anchor trader consensus around a 60.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Resilient growth and energy-driven price pressures have shifted market-implied rate paths higher, elevating the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while compressing expectations for cuts. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot updates reinforce a higher terminal rate outlook near 3.8% by late 2026. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent data will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation persistence.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$62,478Дата завершення
Jan 27, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Persistent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, alongside August unemployment holding at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, anchor trader consensus around a 60.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Resilient growth and energy-driven price pressures have shifted market-implied rate paths higher, elevating the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while compressing expectations for cuts. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot updates reinforce a higher terminal rate outlook near 3.8% by late 2026. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent data will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation persistence.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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