Recent inflation moderation has positioned the 2.4% Core CPI year-over-year outcome as the leading market-implied probability at 39.5% for the September 2026 release, with 2.3% and 2.5% as close contenders. Persistent shelter costs and core services inflation continue to anchor expectations near these levels, while softening labor market indicators and wage trends have supported the modest downside tilt in trader consensus. Aggregated real-money positions on Polymarket reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of the data trajectory versus the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Retail sales, producer prices, and employment reports scheduled before the CPI print represent the next catalysts likely to shift these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2.4% 40%
2.5% 24%
2.3% 23%
2.2% 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 14, 2026
≤2.0%
5%
2.1%
5%
2.2%
7%
2.3%
23%
2.4%
40%
2.5%
24%
2.6%
6%
2.7%
6%
2.8%
5%
≥2.9%
4%
2.4% 40%
2.5% 24%
2.3% 23%
2.2% 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 14, 2026
≤2.0%
$142 Обс.
5%
2.1%
$142 Обс.
5%
2.2%
$162 Обс.
7%
2.3%
$453 Обс.
23%
2.4%
$1,185 Обс.
40%
2.5%
$268 Обс.
24%
2.6%
$282 Обс.
6%
2.7%
$182 Обс.
6%
2.8%
$142 Обс.
5%
≥2.9%
$349 Обс.
4%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent inflation moderation has positioned the 2.4% Core CPI year-over-year outcome as the leading market-implied probability at 39.5% for the September 2026 release, with 2.3% and 2.5% as close contenders. Persistent shelter costs and core services inflation continue to anchor expectations near these levels, while softening labor market indicators and wage trends have supported the modest downside tilt in trader consensus. Aggregated real-money positions on Polymarket reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of the data trajectory versus the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Retail sales, producer prices, and employment reports scheduled before the CPI print represent the next catalysts likely to shift these probabilities.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,308Дата завершення
Oct 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent inflation moderation has positioned the 2.4% Core CPI year-over-year outcome as the leading market-implied probability at 39.5% for the September 2026 release, with 2.3% and 2.5% as close contenders. Persistent shelter costs and core services inflation continue to anchor expectations near these levels, while softening labor market indicators and wage trends have supported the modest downside tilt in trader consensus. Aggregated real-money positions on Polymarket reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of the data trajectory versus the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Retail sales, producer prices, and employment reports scheduled before the CPI print represent the next catalysts likely to shift these probabilities.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Обсяг
$3,308Дата завершення
Oct 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation moderation has positioned the 2.4% Core CPI year-over-year outcome as the leading market-implied probability at 39.5% for the September 2026 release, with 2.3% and 2.5% as close contenders. Persistent shelter costs and core services inflation continue to anchor expectations near these levels, while softening labor market indicators and wage trends have supported the modest downside tilt in trader consensus. Aggregated real-money positions on Polymarket reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of the data trajectory versus the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Retail sales, producer prices, and employment reports scheduled before the CPI print represent the next catalysts likely to shift these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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