Recent August inflation data at 1.7% month-over-month—the lowest in 14 months—has anchored trader expectations for September around the 1.6-2.1% range, with closely matched probabilities reflecting uncertainty over seasonal price swings and core trends. Sustained fiscal surpluses, a stable peso under the managed exchange-rate framework, and fading inflation inertia from prior relative-price adjustments continue to support disinflation, though food, housing, and regulated-price components introduce volatility. Year-to-date inflation stands near 21%, with annual readings easing to about 33.5%. The September print, due mid-October, will hinge on September-specific data releases and any shifts in monetary policy signals from the BCRA.