Xi Jinping’s consolidated control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 95.5% “No” consensus on a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior figures such as General Zhang Youxia, have further centralized authority rather than exposing fractures, with leadership transitions historically managed through scheduled party congresses. No verified factional challenges, public dissent, or institutional signals have emerged in 2025–2026 to alter this pattern. Trader pricing aligns with the absence of visible opposition and policy continuity ahead of the next congress. Low-probability shifts remain possible from a sudden leadership health event, severe economic dislocation prompting elite realignment, or an external shock disrupting internal stability before the end of 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено5% шанс
$154,289 Обс.
$154,289 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
5% шанс
$154,289 Обс.
$154,289 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s consolidated control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 95.5% “No” consensus on a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior figures such as General Zhang Youxia, have further centralized authority rather than exposing fractures, with leadership transitions historically managed through scheduled party congresses. No verified factional challenges, public dissent, or institutional signals have emerged in 2025–2026 to alter this pattern. Trader pricing aligns with the absence of visible opposition and policy continuity ahead of the next congress. Low-probability shifts remain possible from a sudden leadership health event, severe economic dislocation prompting elite realignment, or an external shock disrupting internal stability before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$154,289Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s consolidated control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 95.5% “No” consensus on a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior figures such as General Zhang Youxia, have further centralized authority rather than exposing fractures, with leadership transitions historically managed through scheduled party congresses. No verified factional challenges, public dissent, or institutional signals have emerged in 2025–2026 to alter this pattern. Trader pricing aligns with the absence of visible opposition and policy continuity ahead of the next congress. Low-probability shifts remain possible from a sudden leadership health event, severe economic dislocation prompting elite realignment, or an external shock disrupting internal stability before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$154,289Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s consolidated control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 95.5% “No” consensus on a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior figures such as General Zhang Youxia, have further centralized authority rather than exposing fractures, with leadership transitions historically managed through scheduled party congresses. No verified factional challenges, public dissent, or institutional signals have emerged in 2025–2026 to alter this pattern. Trader pricing aligns with the absence of visible opposition and policy continuity ahead of the next congress. Low-probability shifts remain possible from a sudden leadership health event, severe economic dislocation prompting elite realignment, or an external shock disrupting internal stability before the end of 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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