Lula leads trader consensus for first place in Amazonas at 65.5% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33.5%, with other candidates priced far lower. Recent state polls show a tight contest, with Lula holding edges in interior municipalities while Flávio remains competitive in Manaus, though some late surveys indicate near-ties or slight Flávio advantages within margins of error. Key drivers include Lula’s incumbency and regional development messaging, reinforced by an offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast that aligns with local economic priorities. Flávio’s positioning as the primary right-wing contender faces headwinds from prior scandals, while fragmented support for minor names like Pablo Marçal, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado limits their first-round viability. The October 4 first-round vote and Amazonas’ historical alignment with national winners continue to shape assessments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLula 69%
Flavio Bolsonaro 34%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$24,341 Обс.
$24,341 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
69%
Flavio Bolsonaro
34%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 69%
Flavio Bolsonaro 34%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$24,341 Обс.
$24,341 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,674 Обс.
69%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$8,113 Обс.
34%
Clariana Barao
$823 Обс.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$729 Обс.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$571 Обс.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$747 Обс.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$836 Обс.
<1%
Renan Santos
$1,149 Обс.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$751 Обс.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$855 Обс.
<1%
Samara
$542 Обс.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$908 Обс.
<1%
Zema
$641 Обс.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads trader consensus for first place in Amazonas at 65.5% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33.5%, with other candidates priced far lower. Recent state polls show a tight contest, with Lula holding edges in interior municipalities while Flávio remains competitive in Manaus, though some late surveys indicate near-ties or slight Flávio advantages within margins of error. Key drivers include Lula’s incumbency and regional development messaging, reinforced by an offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast that aligns with local economic priorities. Flávio’s positioning as the primary right-wing contender faces headwinds from prior scandals, while fragmented support for minor names like Pablo Marçal, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado limits their first-round viability. The October 4 first-round vote and Amazonas’ historical alignment with national winners continue to shape assessments.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Обсяг
$24,341Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads trader consensus for first place in Amazonas at 65.5% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33.5%, with other candidates priced far lower. Recent state polls show a tight contest, with Lula holding edges in interior municipalities while Flávio remains competitive in Manaus, though some late surveys indicate near-ties or slight Flávio advantages within margins of error. Key drivers include Lula’s incumbency and regional development messaging, reinforced by an offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast that aligns with local economic priorities. Flávio’s positioning as the primary right-wing contender faces headwinds from prior scandals, while fragmented support for minor names like Pablo Marçal, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado limits their first-round viability. The October 4 first-round vote and Amazonas’ historical alignment with national winners continue to shape assessments.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$24,341Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Lula leads trader consensus for first place in Amazonas at 65.5% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33.5%, with other candidates priced far lower. Recent state polls show a tight contest, with Lula holding edges in interior municipalities while Flávio remains competitive in Manaus, though some late surveys indicate near-ties or slight Flávio advantages within margins of error. Key drivers include Lula’s incumbency and regional development messaging, reinforced by an offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast that aligns with local economic priorities. Flávio’s positioning as the primary right-wing contender faces headwinds from prior scandals, while fragmented support for minor names like Pablo Marçal, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado limits their first-round viability. The October 4 first-round vote and Amazonas’ historical alignment with national winners continue to shape assessments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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