Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 secured the top spot on the BenchAlign leaderboard at 82.95 and multiple independent indexes measuring reasoning, coding, and agentic performance, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched two days later. Traders have priced Anthropic at 80.5% implied probability because these models maintain consistent leads across verified benchmarks and human-preference arenas with style control enabled, while OpenAI’s new flagship trails by roughly 1–2 points on composite scores. Other labs remain far behind on the same metrics. With the September 30 snapshot approaching, any late benchmark updates or arena voting shifts could narrow the gap, though current data favor Anthropic’s sustained edge through the month-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 81%
OpenAI 13.3%
Meta 2.3%
Google 1.9%
$89,283 Vol.
$89,283 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
81%
OpenAI
13%
Meta
2%
2%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 81%
OpenAI 13.3%
Meta 2.3%
Google 1.9%
$89,283 Vol.
$89,283 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$39,799 Vol.
81%
OpenAI
$8,831 Vol.
13%
Meta
$7,909 Vol.
2%
$5,713 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$3,845 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,212 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,870 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,852 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,431 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$930 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,554 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$436 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 secured the top spot on the BenchAlign leaderboard at 82.95 and multiple independent indexes measuring reasoning, coding, and agentic performance, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched two days later. Traders have priced Anthropic at 80.5% implied probability because these models maintain consistent leads across verified benchmarks and human-preference arenas with style control enabled, while OpenAI’s new flagship trails by roughly 1–2 points on composite scores. Other labs remain far behind on the same metrics. With the September 30 snapshot approaching, any late benchmark updates or arena voting shifts could narrow the gap, though current data favor Anthropic’s sustained edge through the month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$89,283Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 secured the top spot on the BenchAlign leaderboard at 82.95 and multiple independent indexes measuring reasoning, coding, and agentic performance, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched two days later. Traders have priced Anthropic at 80.5% implied probability because these models maintain consistent leads across verified benchmarks and human-preference arenas with style control enabled, while OpenAI’s new flagship trails by roughly 1–2 points on composite scores. Other labs remain far behind on the same metrics. With the September 30 snapshot approaching, any late benchmark updates or arena voting shifts could narrow the gap, though current data favor Anthropic’s sustained edge through the month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$89,283Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 secured the top spot on the BenchAlign leaderboard at 82.95 and multiple independent indexes measuring reasoning, coding, and agentic performance, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched two days later. Traders have priced Anthropic at 80.5% implied probability because these models maintain consistent leads across verified benchmarks and human-preference arenas with style control enabled, while OpenAI’s new flagship trails by roughly 1–2 points on composite scores. Other labs remain far behind on the same metrics. With the September 30 snapshot approaching, any late benchmark updates or arena voting shifts could narrow the gap, though current data favor Anthropic’s sustained edge through the month-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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