Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 releases have driven the 66.5% implied probability by topping independent leaderboards in intelligence index, agentic coding, and reasoning benchmarks as of mid-August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in complex workflows and long-horizon tasks compared to competitors. xAI's Grok 4.6 post-training update on August 12 lifted its standing to third in several metrics, supporting its 13.6% odds through improved efficiency and agentic gains. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini series trail in composite scores despite strengths in multimodal and math-specific areas. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects Anthropic's current frontier position while accounting for potential late-2026 model iterations that could shift outcomes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic 67%
xAI 13.5%
OpenAI 9%
Google 6%
$711,120 Vol.
$711,120 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
67%
xAI
14%
OpenAI
9%
6%
Meta
3%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 67%
xAI 13.5%
OpenAI 9%
Google 6%
$711,120 Vol.
$711,120 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$78,937 Vol.
67%
xAI
$56,292 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$58,373 Vol.
9%
$38,440 Vol.
6%
Meta
$48,160 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$52,355 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$50,415 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$44,616 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$45,964 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$55,570 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$36,846 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$40,377 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$35,992 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$31,676 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$37,108 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 releases have driven the 66.5% implied probability by topping independent leaderboards in intelligence index, agentic coding, and reasoning benchmarks as of mid-August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in complex workflows and long-horizon tasks compared to competitors. xAI's Grok 4.6 post-training update on August 12 lifted its standing to third in several metrics, supporting its 13.6% odds through improved efficiency and agentic gains. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini series trail in composite scores despite strengths in multimodal and math-specific areas. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects Anthropic's current frontier position while accounting for potential late-2026 model iterations that could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$711,120Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 releases have driven the 66.5% implied probability by topping independent leaderboards in intelligence index, agentic coding, and reasoning benchmarks as of mid-August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in complex workflows and long-horizon tasks compared to competitors. xAI's Grok 4.6 post-training update on August 12 lifted its standing to third in several metrics, supporting its 13.6% odds through improved efficiency and agentic gains. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini series trail in composite scores despite strengths in multimodal and math-specific areas. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects Anthropic's current frontier position while accounting for potential late-2026 model iterations that could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$711,120Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 releases have driven the 66.5% implied probability by topping independent leaderboards in intelligence index, agentic coding, and reasoning benchmarks as of mid-August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in complex workflows and long-horizon tasks compared to competitors. xAI's Grok 4.6 post-training update on August 12 lifted its standing to third in several metrics, supporting its 13.6% odds through improved efficiency and agentic gains. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini series trail in composite scores despite strengths in multimodal and math-specific areas. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects Anthropic's current frontier position while accounting for potential late-2026 model iterations that could shift outcomes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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