**Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with chief AI officer Alexandr Wang describing it as “on track” and set to be “very competitive” after internal July claims of benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5.** The model uses roughly an order of magnitude more compute than Muse Spark (internally Avocado), Meta’s April 2026 release that has seen rapid follow-on updates, including the September 3 launch of Muse Spark 1.3 focused on coding and agentic capabilities. Internal documents reported in late August targeted an October release, potentially as part of the Muse family or standalone, amid Meta’s broader push into consumer AI agents like the planned Hatch product. Trader sentiment reflects Meta’s heavy infrastructure spending and leadership statements on closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, tempered by typical frontier-model timeline slippage and the lack of independent verification of benchmark results. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or further Muse Spark iterations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMeta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
BAGO
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
14%
October 31
59%
November 30
79%
$947 Vol.
September 30
$20 Vol.
14%
October 31
$726 Vol.
59%
November 30
$201 Vol.
79%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with chief AI officer Alexandr Wang describing it as “on track” and set to be “very competitive” after internal July claims of benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5.** The model uses roughly an order of magnitude more compute than Muse Spark (internally Avocado), Meta’s April 2026 release that has seen rapid follow-on updates, including the September 3 launch of Muse Spark 1.3 focused on coding and agentic capabilities. Internal documents reported in late August targeted an October release, potentially as part of the Muse family or standalone, amid Meta’s broader push into consumer AI agents like the planned Hatch product. Trader sentiment reflects Meta’s heavy infrastructure spending and leadership statements on closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, tempered by typical frontier-model timeline slippage and the lack of independent verification of benchmark results. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or further Muse Spark iterations.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$947Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with chief AI officer Alexandr Wang describing it as “on track” and set to be “very competitive” after internal July claims of benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5.** The model uses roughly an order of magnitude more compute than Muse Spark (internally Avocado), Meta’s April 2026 release that has seen rapid follow-on updates, including the September 3 launch of Muse Spark 1.3 focused on coding and agentic capabilities. Internal documents reported in late August targeted an October release, potentially as part of the Muse family or standalone, amid Meta’s broader push into consumer AI agents like the planned Hatch product. Trader sentiment reflects Meta’s heavy infrastructure spending and leadership statements on closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, tempered by typical frontier-model timeline slippage and the lack of independent verification of benchmark results. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or further Muse Spark iterations.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$947Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with chief AI officer Alexandr Wang describing it as “on track” and set to be “very competitive” after internal July claims of benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5.** The model uses roughly an order of magnitude more compute than Muse Spark (internally Avocado), Meta’s April 2026 release that has seen rapid follow-on updates, including the September 3 launch of Muse Spark 1.3 focused on coding and agentic capabilities. Internal documents reported in late August targeted an October release, potentially as part of the Muse family or standalone, amid Meta’s broader push into consumer AI agents like the planned Hatch product. Trader sentiment reflects Meta’s heavy infrastructure spending and leadership statements on closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, tempered by typical frontier-model timeline slippage and the lack of independent verification of benchmark results. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or further Muse Spark iterations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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