**Recent Houthi attacks and partial carrier resumption of Red Sea/Suez routings are the dominant drivers of trader positioning around 170–209 weekly transits through the Bab el-Mandeb.** Ongoing strikes—including the Aug 24 hit on the Saudi tanker Amzan and the Aug 11 incident that killed six—have pushed war-risk premiums sharply higher and kept many operators treating Suez transits as conditional. This tempers optimism despite MSC, Maersk, and others formally adding services back through the strait in August. AIS-visible counts have stabilized near 223 per week (10–16 Aug) after dipping toward 200 earlier in the month, with MarineTraffic reporting 269 crossings in the most recent snapshot; however, a material share of movements run dark (AIS-off) for security, complicating exact tallies and supporting the market’s tight clustering between the 170–189 and 190–209 bins. Suez Canal volumes have climbed to their highest four-week total since early 2024 but remain roughly 41% below pre-crisis levels, reflecting the still-elevated risk environment and selective routing. With the resolution week beginning immediately, the narrow spread between the two leading outcomes captures uncertainty over whether incremental carrier commitments and any further dark-transit pickup can offset fresh deterrence from attacks and rising insurance costs, versus a modest pullback if enforcement intensifies.