**Recent Houthi attacks and the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting, keeping Bab el-Mandeb volumes subdued but not collapsed.** As of late August 2026, weekly AIS-visible transits hover around 223–269 (roughly 32–38 per day on average), with daily confirmed crossings often in the mid-30s to low-40s range amid day-to-day volatility. Laden commercial traffic, especially tankers, has contracted more sharply than headline counts suggest, while shadow-fleet, sanctioned, and ballast movements form a larger share of activity. Major carriers (Maersk, MSC, COSCO, CMA CGM) have resumed some Asia–Europe and Mediterranean services via Suez—pushing Suez Canal volumes to their highest four-week total since early 2024—but still ~40% below pre-crisis baselines, reflecting conditional rather than full normalization. The closely matched probabilities for the 30–34 (26.8%) and 25–29 (25.5%) bins capture uncertainty over whether incremental Suez recovery can offset renewed attacks (e.g., the Aug. 24 strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan and earlier fatal incident on the Tihamah) or whether further premium spikes and carrier caution will compress volumes toward the lower-20s. Key swing factors include the trajectory of Houthi enforcement, any de-escalation in regional tensions, and the speed of further service returns, which directly affect daily averages through September. Traders are pricing a narrow band around current stabilized levels rather than a sharp rebound or deeper drop.