Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi shipping have driven a roughly 24% decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits since mid-July, stabilizing weekly volumes near 260–270 vessels amid broader Red Sea geopolitical risks tied to Iran-related tensions. This positions the 220+ outcome as the market-implied leader at 44%, reflecting partial recovery in commodity vessel movements and limited further escalation through early August. Lower ranges capture downside from potential renewed attacks or diversions, with daily averages of 20–39 vessels underscoring ongoing volatility. Traders price in elevated uncertainty ahead of the August 24 week, as any shift in Houthi enforcement or regional de-escalation could reweight probabilities across the distribution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
200-219 27%
180-199 24%
160-179 23%
<160 21%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 30, 2026
<160
21%
160-179
23%
180-199
24%
200-219
27%
220+
44%
200-219 27%
180-199 24%
160-179 23%
<160 21%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$0 Vol.
21%
160-179
$0 Vol.
23%
180-199
$0 Vol.
24%
200-219
$0 Vol.
27%
220+
$82 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi shipping have driven a roughly 24% decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits since mid-July, stabilizing weekly volumes near 260–270 vessels amid broader Red Sea geopolitical risks tied to Iran-related tensions. This positions the 220+ outcome as the market-implied leader at 44%, reflecting partial recovery in commodity vessel movements and limited further escalation through early August. Lower ranges capture downside from potential renewed attacks or diversions, with daily averages of 20–39 vessels underscoring ongoing volatility. Traders price in elevated uncertainty ahead of the August 24 week, as any shift in Houthi enforcement or regional de-escalation could reweight probabilities across the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$82Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi shipping have driven a roughly 24% decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits since mid-July, stabilizing weekly volumes near 260–270 vessels amid broader Red Sea geopolitical risks tied to Iran-related tensions. This positions the 220+ outcome as the market-implied leader at 44%, reflecting partial recovery in commodity vessel movements and limited further escalation through early August. Lower ranges capture downside from potential renewed attacks or diversions, with daily averages of 20–39 vessels underscoring ongoing volatility. Traders price in elevated uncertainty ahead of the August 24 week, as any shift in Houthi enforcement or regional de-escalation could reweight probabilities across the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$82Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi shipping have driven a roughly 24% decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits since mid-July, stabilizing weekly volumes near 260–270 vessels amid broader Red Sea geopolitical risks tied to Iran-related tensions. This positions the 220+ outcome as the market-implied leader at 44%, reflecting partial recovery in commodity vessel movements and limited further escalation through early August. Lower ranges capture downside from potential renewed attacks or diversions, with daily averages of 20–39 vessels underscoring ongoing volatility. Traders price in elevated uncertainty ahead of the August 24 week, as any shift in Houthi enforcement or regional de-escalation could reweight probabilities across the distribution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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