Recent Houthi naval blockade threats against Saudi shipping, announced in late July 2026, have driven a sharp but stabilizing decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes falling from over 350 to around 266 amid heightened geopolitical risks tied to Iran-Saudi tensions and Red Sea chokepoint vulnerabilities. This has compressed market-implied odds around the 160-199 ship range, where trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether attacks escalate, naval escorts mitigate flows, or operators sustain rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope, pushing premiums and effective capacity lower. Key swing factors include any fresh missile incidents, insurance rate spikes, or de-escalation signals ahead of the August 17 resolution week.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
160-179 39%
180-199 39%
200+ 27%
<160 0
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 23, 2026
<160
31%
160-179
39%
180-199
39%
200+
27%
160-179 39%
180-199 39%
200+ 27%
<160 0
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 23, 2026
<160
$105 Vol.
31%
160-179
$0 Vol.
39%
180-199
$0 Vol.
39%
200+
$0 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi naval blockade threats against Saudi shipping, announced in late July 2026, have driven a sharp but stabilizing decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes falling from over 350 to around 266 amid heightened geopolitical risks tied to Iran-Saudi tensions and Red Sea chokepoint vulnerabilities. This has compressed market-implied odds around the 160-199 ship range, where trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether attacks escalate, naval escorts mitigate flows, or operators sustain rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope, pushing premiums and effective capacity lower. Key swing factors include any fresh missile incidents, insurance rate spikes, or de-escalation signals ahead of the August 17 resolution week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$105Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 23, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi naval blockade threats against Saudi shipping, announced in late July 2026, have driven a sharp but stabilizing decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes falling from over 350 to around 266 amid heightened geopolitical risks tied to Iran-Saudi tensions and Red Sea chokepoint vulnerabilities. This has compressed market-implied odds around the 160-199 ship range, where trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether attacks escalate, naval escorts mitigate flows, or operators sustain rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope, pushing premiums and effective capacity lower. Key swing factors include any fresh missile incidents, insurance rate spikes, or de-escalation signals ahead of the August 17 resolution week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$105Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 23, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi naval blockade threats against Saudi shipping, announced in late July 2026, have driven a sharp but stabilizing decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes falling from over 350 to around 266 amid heightened geopolitical risks tied to Iran-Saudi tensions and Red Sea chokepoint vulnerabilities. This has compressed market-implied odds around the 160-199 ship range, where trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether attacks escalate, naval escorts mitigate flows, or operators sustain rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope, pushing premiums and effective capacity lower. Key swing factors include any fresh missile incidents, insurance rate spikes, or de-escalation signals ahead of the August 17 resolution week.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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