Persistent geopolitical tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial transits, positioning the 25-49 ships range as the market-implied leader at 42.5%. Recent data show daily volumes at just 2-9 vessels versus a pre-crisis baseline of 60-140, reflecting IRGC routing controls, elevated war-risk insurance, and selective passage limited largely to Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels. Trader consensus in the 24-27.5% bands for adjacent ranges incorporates modest recovery signals from the June 2026 memorandum while pricing in ongoing uncertainty around enforcement and potential escalations ahead of the August 10 week.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
25-49 43%
50-74 28%
75-99 26%
<25 24%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 16, 2026
<25
24%
25-49
43%
50-74
28%
75-99
26%
100+
24%
25-49 43%
50-74 28%
75-99 26%
<25 24%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 16, 2026
<25
$3 Vol.
24%
25-49
$0 Vol.
43%
50-74
$0 Vol.
28%
75-99
$0 Vol.
26%
100+
$0 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial transits, positioning the 25-49 ships range as the market-implied leader at 42.5%. Recent data show daily volumes at just 2-9 vessels versus a pre-crisis baseline of 60-140, reflecting IRGC routing controls, elevated war-risk insurance, and selective passage limited largely to Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels. Trader consensus in the 24-27.5% bands for adjacent ranges incorporates modest recovery signals from the June 2026 memorandum while pricing in ongoing uncertainty around enforcement and potential escalations ahead of the August 10 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$3Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial transits, positioning the 25-49 ships range as the market-implied leader at 42.5%. Recent data show daily volumes at just 2-9 vessels versus a pre-crisis baseline of 60-140, reflecting IRGC routing controls, elevated war-risk insurance, and selective passage limited largely to Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels. Trader consensus in the 24-27.5% bands for adjacent ranges incorporates modest recovery signals from the June 2026 memorandum while pricing in ongoing uncertainty around enforcement and potential escalations ahead of the August 10 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$3Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial transits, positioning the 25-49 ships range as the market-implied leader at 42.5%. Recent data show daily volumes at just 2-9 vessels versus a pre-crisis baseline of 60-140, reflecting IRGC routing controls, elevated war-risk insurance, and selective passage limited largely to Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels. Trader consensus in the 24-27.5% bands for adjacent ranges incorporates modest recovery signals from the June 2026 memorandum while pricing in ongoing uncertainty around enforcement and potential escalations ahead of the August 10 week.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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