Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF place Warsaw’s August 4 maximum temperature in the 33–35 °C range, aligning with the market’s near-even split between 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes. Primary drivers include a persistent warm anomaly across central Europe, supported by above-average North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and light southerly flow under mostly clear skies that enhance afternoon solar heating. Small differences among leading probabilities stem from model spread in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage, all of which can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 4?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 4?
33°C 32%
34°C 31%
35°C 20%
32°C 10%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 4, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
8%
32°C
10%
33°C
32%
34°C
31%
35°C
20%
36°C or higher
4%
33°C 32%
34°C 31%
35°C 20%
32°C 10%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 4, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$20 Vol.
2%
31°C
$6 Vol.
8%
32°C
$10 Vol.
10%
33°C
$28 Vol.
32%
34°C
$38 Vol.
31%
35°C
$31 Vol.
20%
36°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF place Warsaw’s August 4 maximum temperature in the 33–35 °C range, aligning with the market’s near-even split between 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes. Primary drivers include a persistent warm anomaly across central Europe, supported by above-average North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and light southerly flow under mostly clear skies that enhance afternoon solar heating. Small differences among leading probabilities stem from model spread in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage, all of which can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$159Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF place Warsaw’s August 4 maximum temperature in the 33–35 °C range, aligning with the market’s near-even split between 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes. Primary drivers include a persistent warm anomaly across central Europe, supported by above-average North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and light southerly flow under mostly clear skies that enhance afternoon solar heating. Small differences among leading probabilities stem from model spread in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage, all of which can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$159Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF place Warsaw’s August 4 maximum temperature in the 33–35 °C range, aligning with the market’s near-even split between 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes. Primary drivers include a persistent warm anomaly across central Europe, supported by above-average North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and light southerly flow under mostly clear skies that enhance afternoon solar heating. Small differences among leading probabilities stem from model spread in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage, all of which can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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